2 years ago I asked same question to man who is familiar to high level insiders. He answered that nobody cares about that. Main aim is investors and their money. And no matter that all those buildings will be empty. That is even better. Imagine that every flat has normal family living in. With full everyday life in western way: 2 cars, lot activities, shoping, meetings, restaurants, etc. I'm sure Dubai's infrastructure won't bear it.
When you have big economy and build few empty buidings, no problem. But when building for empty rises 30-40%.... Can this way of economy work forever?
I would agree with you that some 'insiders' are of the opinion 'yes, we want foreigners to invest but not to live here' and see expats as 'targets' ripe for the plucking. However, I disagree with you about the infrastructure. The roads / highways are there - the metro is going forward and the tender has been awarded for nuclear power plants. (to a Korean contractor) - Why spend countless billions for infrastructure unless it was part of the larger plan to support a growing population? Especially when the oil revenue for Dubai is marginal? Look at the hospitals, schools etc. I do believe the plan was to see the city grow -which was a reasonable assumption until 2009.
On the other hand - your point is well taken when you look at Ajman - which took the investor money and didn't deliver on the infrastructure - and quite doubtful if they ever had any intention to. The gov't cancels the projects after defaulting on delivering the infrastructure and then penalizes the investors 30%! No where else in the civilized world would you be able to get away with that !
More amazing is how Abu Dhabi can sit back - silent - and let them get away with it!
Dubai is a great city and has much potential but needs serious re-engineering. However, in absence of real changes in the visa rules and elimination of the red-tape - it's going to be an uphill battle. It is NOT user friendly when it comes to attracting and supporting new businesses. (In a country like Singapore- you can open a business within hours and the cost is a less than a few hundred dollars - and the red tape is gone as most services are done electronically and the gov't staff are friendly and polite)
Dubai delegated programs to local cohorts that were simply not up to the task - such as the National Identity card - that had to keep changing the deadlines and back-pedaling.
Clearly - the management that launched it were simply inexperienced - setting guidelines that were impossible and insult to injury - were downright hostile and indifferent to understanding the needs of the people they were tasked to facilitate. Further alienating the very people they wanted to attract to live there long term. Leaving you with the overall feeling - 'They just DO NOT CARE' - hardly the attitude necessary to build a growing, sustainable community..
If they start now, in earnest - and bring in outside assistance, they can craft an achievable 10 year plan but this will require a 'fresh slate' - and the 1st place they need to start is with RERA - who's poor performance has cost them dearly - in more ways they can possibly imagine - severely shattering investor confidence and undermining the Sheiks best intentions to create investor protection and transparency.
(I state 'outside' assistance because I get the sense that the Sheik is surrounded by senior insiders that tell him 'what he wants to hear' - rather than what he needs to hear' - no blame here - as we all byproducts of our culture and it is a monarchy. I reckon it would be rather difficult to find any staff of the Queen of England that can advise her 'Straight-up' - other than Tony Blair..) Insofar as changing the local mind set - that will take another generation. Real reform is needed and beyond some token gestures and media spin - as sadly, Dubai has lost much of its credibility - on a institutional level - down to the grassroots.
Alas - these are just ideas but I suspect that the gov't is pre-occupied on finding solutions to meet their obligations (Bonds) with most of the issues we're discussing on the back burner. I wish them well and hope they will sort it out but without a change in mind-set - they'll remain treading water.
Great city and I hope & pray it rises to the challenge but a 'clean-sweep' is called for.
