2009 Prediction

[saleem alghalib]

what to do now,there are no buyers in the market,no offers nothing,i have many flats in levan Q POINT, few plots.i want to sell but there are no buyer no price.what to do then??

 

[Demoniise]

I'll take them off your hands for free if they are such a burden!

 

[wahie]

nakheel

nakheel cutting back staff .by 15% according to uaeinteract website.

is there a website showing monthly changes in property prices. ? any index?

sanjay

 

[Dubai_One]

Hi guys,
Your discussion is really interesting, it's good to discuss in business our business, where we stand and what we can do next.
Nowadays in Dubai, there is a lot of fogs, the vision is not clear, the prices lost their orientation, every body is panicking, sharks are every where to take their chances.
I believe and this is my own opinion, that the differentiation between properties will start to shape by the first quarter of 2009, and here the only positive point will matter in protecting the value of any of our investment
- The location
- The developer
- The contractor
- Where the construction stand by date picture and the declared delivery date
- Which phase the buy was made
- Price / Sq Ft
- Chance of renting and how much
Based on the above, what do you think guys about 1 B/R Badrah Phase 1, Dubai waterfront, I got my apartment at 1280 / Sq direct from Nakheel at day 1,
Taking in consideration that it is in front of SZR and to the left of Jebel Ali Port, and Jafza, well the only close residential locality to Jebel Ali Port 5 Minutes, by the way construction is going fast, Townhouses started to take shape, even there is one already painted from outside which can be visualised from the guard post station at the entry of the construction zone.
Taking the over all in consideration, may I ask your opinions.

 

[MASHH]

Hi,

Referring to your article on your take of the 2009 prediction for the Dubai, What is your advice for an individual that has an off-plan property is it better to sell under the current market condition i.e. 0/-5 premium or hold on to it until end of 2009 or even until it has completed, if possible?

Thanks for your quick reply.

Al Furjan is a goood project and if i was u and financials are good i would keep it till completion and sell it or at least till the situation comes back to normal, there are many demands on villas in Dubai and especially when it comes to Nakheel...its a good long term investment you will sell it on completion with min 30% premium...

 

[loai]

yes

1.Flippers are gone
2.Nobody buys off plan
3.Developer first builds after that sells
4.Prices to be based on 10% rental return
5.Home loans will be available at 9-10% per year interest and up to 85%
6.No more flats without title deed can be sold
7.By the end of the year the demand will start growing up again and we might see another bubble

wise prediction...........

 

[dubister]

What about properties in the northern emirates? Like RAK, UAQ etc. I have one on UAQ Marina, like ranches but on the water, which is 70% complete and delivery is suppose to be on June 2009. Thinking of selling it? Cuz i feel that if i wait till delivery, the it will be negative equity, plus mortgage rates will be like 10% and with this situation, i doubt anyone will rent there...

 

[naxal]

Private developers the ball is in the air, ask investes of Dubai Lagoons of Jumeirah Village south, having in some cases paid 70% with NO consrtuction to date in the last 2 some years.

Dubai Lagoons is in Dubai Investment Park !

On another note from what I read above about Springs Villas ,Do u folks also agree that in addition to poor construction quality ,the 'one family per villa' rule of Dubai Municipality is also causing high depreciation of Springs Villas .

 

[dubai freelancer]

Hi Saleem,

Where do u have plots? I have a cash buyer looking for a G+4 in JVS but on OP only.
If your property matches the requirement PM me.

Thanks!
Tanya

what to do now,there are no buyers in the market,no offers nothing,i have many flats in levan Q POINT, few plots.i want to sell but there are no buyer no price.what to do then??

 

[Gashead]

1.Flippers are gone
2.Nobody buys off plan
3.Developer first builds after that sells
4.Prices to be based on 10% rental return
5.Home loans will be available at 9-10% per year interest and up to 85%
6.No more flats without title deed can be sold
7.By the end of the year the demand will start growing up again and we might see another bubble

You won't see another bubble with 9-10% interest rates.

 

[jackcze]

I just wanted to add my two-cents worth.

Nothing will happen until lenders broaden their lending policies and start lending again. It is already happening in Abu Dhabi because that is where the funding is coming from.

Dubai is lagging behind. Lenders are saying that things should improve in the second quarter 2009.

The problem is that lenders do not have effective funding mechanisms. In the past most loans where funded from deposits. Now that deposits have dried up, it is clear that the Dubai banking structure is lacking.

There is a lot of effort going into setting up a more effective system but this will not happen overnight.

In the mean time, only we can do is wait.

 

[SKY]

i think its gone past someone wanting a loan. People confidence is gone. That will take time to come back, maybe 2011 unless market take dramatic change for some unknown reason.

 

[jackcze]

I disagree. We see many people wanting to buy and borrow money but in a lot of cases we cannot help.

The lending issue is the biggest problem the UAE property market is facing at the moment. If people could borrow 85% of 90%, the market would pick up slightly.

Having said that, it is only completed properties that are selling at the moment. Off plan properties will not be popular again until the system changes.

 

[samsaf]

Keeping a brave face!

Abu Dhabi has declared a predicted annual growth of 7% till 2015.
Well, they are surely keeping a brave face !!

Let's wait and see what happens...


"Abu Dhabi said yesterday it was aiming for 7% annual economic growth through to 2015 by developing its non-oil sector and would tap new revenue sources such as government bonds to finance its budge"

Gulf Times ? Qatar?s top-selling English daily newspaper - Finance & Business

 

[AEG]

Buyers are waiting for the prices to fall down a little bit more.
Another drop of 15-20% and the market will be flooded with buyers again.

You guys seem to have a good understanding of the market, I have a villa in Jumeriah Village Triangle by Nakheel (2691 sqf and 7000 sqf plot) what do guys think i should do with it. Prices have a dropped a lot in this project for no reason - (Handover has already started, so it's no longer off-plan). Agreed, prices where inflated when people where asking for 3.5 and 3.6 million. A few agents were trying to conince me tht prices will go up to 4 mil...but honestly i never bought into this crap (even though transaction where happening at 3.2 and 3.3)

The drop was very fast and much more than in other areas - Jlt, Greens, Marina. What do you guys think of this project? Does it have any potenial?

I bought my unit from the secondary market in March/april and i have a mortgage? Do you think the price can bounce back to to 2.7 or 2.8 million just to cover my costs (not right now of cource, but maybe by early 2010 or so) . I see them being offered for 2.3 and 2.4 and a few even for 2 mil. Agents are telling me that all those sellers are major investors trying to off load their massive stocks (that's the main issue with Nakheel properties.... owners are usually investors with 5, 10 and 20 units who control accordingly control the market price and they are the ones pushing the prices down) They have been holding it since 2004/5 when it was launched at 1.5 or 1.6 and of cource anyone who bought in the last year or 2 cannot compete with them.

I would apprecite some feedback from all the experts here...Georgihh, what do you advice?

 

[georgihh]

You guys seem to have a good understanding of the market, I have a villa in Jumeriah Village Triangle by Nakheel (2691 sqf and 7000 sqf plot) what do guys think i should do with it. Prices have a dropped a lot in this project for no reason - (Handover has already started, so it's no longer off-plan). Agreed, prices where inflated when people where asking for 3.5 and 3.6 million. A few agents were trying to conince me tht prices will go up to 4 mil...but honestly i never bought into this crap (even though transaction where happening at 3.2 and 3.3)

The drop was very fast and much more than in other areas - Jlt, Greens, Marina. What do you guys think of this project? Does it have any potenial?

I bought my unit from the secondary market in March/april and i have a mortgage? Do you think the price can bounce back to to 2.7 or 2.8 million just to cover my costs (not right now of cource, but maybe by early 2010 or so) . I see them being offered for 2.3 and 2.4 and a few even for 2 mil. Agents are telling me that all those sellers are major investors trying to off load their massive stocks (that's the main issue with Nakheel properties.... owners are usually investors with 5, 10 and 20 units who control accordingly control the market price and they are the ones pushing the prices down) They have been holding it since 2004/5 when it was launched at 1.5 or 1.6 and of cource anyone who bought in the last year or 2 cannot compete with them.

I would apprecite some feedback from all the experts here...Georgihh, what do you advice?

Keep it.

Prices are approaching the bottom. I think the buyers are coming back and the sellers don’t want to sell for nothing. Prices will go up but will take time. I am also stacked with 3 properties but will not sell for nothing.
Just don’t forget to rent out your place as soon as available to cover some of your expenses

 

[loai]

ready properties are still selling so your lucky... if you bought at a good price then have a smile

 

[AEG]

I'm hoping the market revives - still doubtful though!

ready properties are still selling so your lucky... if you bought at a good price then have a smile

Thanks for the feedback guys (loai, georgihh). Agreed, ready properties are still selling but investors in this project (along with Jumeriah park and Furjan, mostly Nakeel investors) have droped the prices massively. Some agents are saying that there are a few out there as low as 1.9 and 2 million (average asking price is 2.4 or 2.5) I got it at 2.8, and at a point in time it was selling @ 3.3 and 3.4 million. Did i get it at good price even for the long term? I really don't know, reports are coming out everyday with a very negative outlook on Dubai - economy is Stagnating (i would say shrinking),liquidity is drying up, expats are feeling insecure and population is most probably decreasing. You can add to that new supply of 32,000 units in 2009 and probably a similar amout in 2010. So where will demand come from? International investors are not coming back anytime soon, we are seen as high risk markets and dubai has recieved a lot of negative publicity in western media in the last few months. You need the cash rish investors back to boost the market (I'm mean GCC nationals, Iranian, Pakistani and Indian investors) and these guys have been blacklisted as "speculators". They tried to kick them out this summer with the new laws and i bet you that all developers and even goverment badly needs them back in these days!!

 

[TommyC]

So where will demand come from? International investors are not coming back anytime soon, we are seen as high risk markets and dubai has recieved a lot of negative publicity in western media in the last few months. You need the cash rish investors back to boost the market (I'm mean GCC nationals, Iranian, Pakistani and Indian investors) and these guys have been blacklisted as "speculators". They tried to kick them out this summer with the new laws and i bet you that all developers and even goverment badly needs them back in these days!!

I've heard (another rumor) that the government will clarify the freehold visa regulations and also now let Iraqi and Irani nationals be eligible for residence visa through property. This was apparently not the case earlier (someone here with more info that can confirm this?). Exactly the move you mentioned if the rumor is true.

 

[loai]

first quarter is going to be bad... 3rd to 4th will be good