It is not that bad, if you have bought cash

[georgihh]

If you had cash in 2006 or before and have bought a property in Dubai you shouldn’t be complaining.
The price of your property is still the same or even more and your average rent during the years was 12%. Four years at 12% this is half of your investment. Even now you can net 7-8% from your rent and you double your money in 10 years. Considering that the interest rates on fixed deposits are far less (2 %) your property is still generating money. Even now if you buy a property you can expect 6-7 % per year.
The oversupplies will not damage the market too much as the people are moving from no-freehold properties to a freehold properties. The mentality of the local population is to keep the buildings half empty but not too drop the prices too much.
As far as the government keeps the supply at a reasonable level we should be Ok.
Unfortunately who have bought 2007-2008 will not recover in the near future, but that’s the reality.
Unless the government don’t start with the madness construction ( 2 years ago) the market will start improving early next year.
The downturn cannot last forever and it will finish very very soon.

 

[Wannaberich]

The downturn cannot last forever and it will finish very very soon.

Not sure why you think that.Rental and selling prices are still dropping if only slightly now.Its difficult to believe reports that state prices in certain areas are actually rising.
There is very little good news coming out of Dubai.The goverment has done NOTHING to help things along.They are USELESS.
The Dubai property market is not an old established mature market.It has no history.The UK market for example does and we know there is a cycle of prices rising,then dropping a little for a while,then rising again.
We dont know what will happen in Dubai.Its possible the improvement may only be for example a 10% rise in the next 5 years.Who knows.
The population needs to increase fast to take up the oversupply and this should make prices rise.
Personally I dont think the goverment will do anything to stop another period of mass construction.They are too incompetent.I believe the reason why there wont be mass building is because there are not enough stupid investors to buy off-plan and that off-plan is dead.Hopefully.

Also who will buy completed.Investors?would you buy a unit that brings in low rent and where you have to pay the ridiculous maintenance charges that exisit in Dubai.End users are more likely to buy but as we know Dubai is a transient city and people stay for a short while and then move on.Therefore they rent and don't buy.
The goverment is bankrupt.While that is the case Dubai will struggle.

 

[badrah]

I think gorge is trying to be positive, it's' good to be positive but dont forget to be realistic.

Property market in Dubai has crashed ver bad and it's true the government is doing noting but trying to delay construction so prices will not crash more which is eventually will backfire.
I've couple of friends who bought and paid 45% in villas is FCW and the handover is supposed to be in the next couple of month, so far the developer didnt even start the construction.!!!!

 

[Wannaberich]

I think gorge is trying to be positive, it's' good to be positive but dont forget to be realistic.

Property market in Dubai has crashed ver bad and it's true the government is doing noting but trying to delay construction so prices will not crash more which is eventually will backfire.
I've couple of friends who bought and paid 45% in villas is FCW and the handover is supposed to be in the next couple of month, so far the developer didnt even start the construction.!!!!

I think where Dubai is concerned its better to be realistic rather than positive.
Until there is any kind of good news coming out of Dubai then I see no reason to be positive.If there is an improvement in proprrty prices then it will happen much slower than abroad.In the UK prices have been rising for a number of months now.

With regards to the goverment slowing down construction,its way way too late for that now.There are already too many units.
There are other ways they can look up.Visas is the obvious one to start.
However they have enough to deal with considering they are bankrupt and if there are thousands/millions of investors out there who have lost money then they really dont care.In the longrun this will backfire as no sensible investor will come to Dubai.

 

[Sixgun]

Regarding the oversupply problem, present and imminent,
I have lost touch with actual figures, but as a small example...

A pal of mine is awaiting delivery in Jumeriah lakes, 42 storey Laguna towers..
There are approx 79 towers in various stages of development ,
his reached floor 38 about a year ago, then absolute snails pace, because it's pointless them completing whilst surrounded by a building site of skeleton buildings, (it's part Movenpick hotel- and who exactly would book in at the moment
Oh...and, unfortunately... NO lake in sight, cos if there was, it would flood the many sites which are actuallystill holes in the ground..creating expensive swimming pools.
They invested in 2005, and when/if they are fortunate enough to receive the keys, it will be along with 79 other towers.

 

[Wannaberich]

Regarding the oversupply problem, present and imminent,
I have lost touch with actual figures, but as a small example...

A pal of mine is awaiting delivery in Jumeriah lakes, 42 storey Laguna towers..
There are approx 79 towers in various stages of development ,
his reached floor 38 about a year ago, then absolute snails pace, because it's pointless them completing whilst surrounded by a building site of skeleton buildings, (it's part Movenpick hotel- and who exactly would book in at the moment
Oh...and, unfortunately... NO lake in sight, cos if there was, it would flood the many sites which are actuallystill holes in the ground..creating expensive swimming pools.
They invested in 2005, and when/if they are fortunate enough to receive the keys, it will be along with 79 other towers.

At least those 79 towers won't be completed at the same time.Some I imagine may still be a few years from completed even.The marina also has a number of towers still unfinished.Also obviously the oversupply will hit most of Dubai as most places have buildings under construction.Thousands more units are due for completion this year.

On the bright side,nothing is being launched.Off-plan is dead and probably will never return unless in a very modified form.The population is rising.Oversupply will be taken up so as long as mass building does not return then prices will rise but not for a while.

 

[revolutionary]

I have a place in Lake View, JLT and need to correct some of the inaccurate descriptions of occupancy levels in that area.

It seems that all the residential towers quickly filled soon after completion. A number of reasons for this but the main ones I would see are:-

• preferred general location for ex-pats
• proximity to the Freeport
• commuters from Abu Dhabi
• relocaters from Sharjah taking advantage of the ore affordable rents
• more affordable than the marina
• easy transport links and parking
• high quality

The commercial towers are empty and not much business for the one hotel already open.

The lakes not being filled has nothing to do with the remaining few 'holes in the ground'. Nakheel's lack of money is the real problem, as well as people refusing to pay for maintenance of something that has not yet been completed

The UK market isn't as reliable as some would say especially outside of the London area. The last major property recession in the early 90's saw fall, stagnation, further fall before London pulled the rest of the country upwards. The outer extremities of the UK had only just started to enjoy this boom just before the current bust.

Agree that off-plan is dead until RERA starts regulating. The court system needs to become more accessible and provide consistent judgements that will restrain those with dishonourable intentions. Anyone who bought into Dubai knows the real value of clauses in their contracts - only those that suit the developer are enforced. The laws are still changing too much and they often act retrospectively catching out many.

 

[Wannaberich]

The UK market isn't as reliable as some would say especially outside of the London area. The last major property recession in the early 90's saw fall, stagnation, further fall before London pulled the rest of the country upwards. The outer extremities of the UK had only just started to enjoy this boom just before the current bust.
.

Totally disagree with you.The UK market is very reliable.Prices rise and rise and rise.Now and again we have a recession and prices fall a bit but then they continue to rise.Property investment in the UK is a very safe bet.As for the 'outer extremities',they enjoy very long periods of price rises just like the rest of the UK.
If I had some spare cash I would def invest it in the UK and def not in Dubai.

 

[georgihh]

This place has always been driven by the government. In the last five years the mass construction has started and now there is no way back. More building needs more people, the people need jobs.
At present there are not enough jobs or business to sustain the population growth. The problem cannot last forever maybe a year, two or max three.
Now is up to the government to step in and they will as they have no other choice. As we are approaching the third year of the downturn expect something to happen. Could be the visa issue could be currencies devaluation could be something else, but something will happen and will happen in a year time.
At the moment everybody in Dubai is waiting for the changes and if they don’t come - goodbye Dubai.
I am optimistic that the place will come back not as strong as before, but will be alive again

 

[Roshan]

Investors put in money in safe waters. Nobody likes to loose money. Dubai has the aura and the geographics to see it through. But if the rules are not conducive for investment, then the whole purpose is defeated.

Rules keep changing. Dubai needs to be crystal clear on the rules. Once the rules are frozen, so shall it be should be the rule.

Roshan

 

[georgihh]

Investors put in money in safe waters. Nobody likes to loose money. Dubai has the aura and the geographics to see it through. But if the rules are not conducive for investment, then the whole purpose is defeated.

Rules keep changing. Dubai needs to be crystal clear on the rules. Once the rules are frozen, so shall it be should be the rule.

Roshan

The government is still on top of the business in Dubai. They have money, but they play very carefully.
All over the world the rule changes and here in Dubai they will change it, if they have no more alternatives. The easy money is gone and will never come back, but this is a living country and will be ups and downs – law will change but prices will also change. Dubai is the capital of the Arabic world and will stay like that forever. I said before 2 billion people want to invest in Dubai and a single spark will trigger the madness again. My advice is whoever has been in the local market and sustained the pressure until now should carry on at least one more year as the things will change very soon.