What are your hopes for the Brazil property market in the short, medium and long-term?

[totallyproperty]

Brazil is the leading economy in Latin America although the ongoing growth in the economy has not been as smooth as many had expected. There is massive inequality with regards to finances and cost of living which is impacting the property market. How do you expect real estate in Brazil to perform?

 

[totallyproperty]

The public unrest ahead of the football World Cup is not good news for the general impression that worldwide investors will get about the country. Would you be in a rush to buy property in Brazil or would you let things settle down?

 

[Mineiro]

As long as the current government is in power there is not a great deal of hope for Brazil. With the economy growing at 0.9% this year , inflation at 6.75%, no investment in infrastructure, and increased household debt, there aren't many reasons to be particularly upbeat.

 

[Mineiro]

Japan to help develop Brazil?s infrastructure - The Japan News

Very good Rob. Now could you tell me, how many beachfront developments the Japanese government is involved in. Even if it was the Japanese building the developments I would be concerned as to the time frames, enviromental permits, planning permission, local government corruption etc.

 

[Mineiro]

Sorry, but I am not sure how you got to that conclusion.

Simply because you posted a link about the Japanese government investing in Brazilian infrastructure, or did that have nothing to do with the subject? After all it was you who posted it. Now here's a link that I think will be helpful for most people.

Construtoras desabam em valor de mercado; veja os números - EXAME.com

Let me know Rob if you need it translated.

Regards.

 

[PresidentK]

I first visited Brazil 10 years and have seen amazing improvements to the country. Just as an indication, I have been good friends with a local family close to my house in Recife and I have seen the fortunes of this family change over the years. 6 years ago they lived in a squalid 1 room apartment.. poor as church mice. None of the children had jobs, the father was an odd-job man, the mother a cleaner. Over the years, their fortunes have gone from strength to strength. The father now owns his own construction business, the children have jobs and are earning over the minimum wage, they bought a 3 bedroom apartment and drive a nice car. Both the daughter and son are now married and each own their own apartments. Sometimes you have to look at the impact on a single family to appreciate what is happening at the macro-economic level.

 

[Jucelino]

PresidentK,
I live in this country since the end of the 70's, more then 35 years now.
But reading your posts I wonder where, in what country you live.
Do you read any newspaper in Brazil, about Brazil, our economics?
Or news from outside Brazil, Economist, FT or any newspaper now adays?
On what planet called Brazil you live?
In the 80's, president Sarney, Brazilian default and inflation of more then 80% a month, we said: It can't get worse, only better".
Now, 2014, we all agree: "It only can get worse, not better".
The country has been ruined by the PT Labour Party (???) fot almost 12 years now.
It will take years to climb up again.
Meanwhile, ofcourse RE prices will drop, who can affort these prices.
Don't be suprissed if this drop will be more then 40-50%.
It wount be the first time.

Think you have to live some years more in this beautifull country to understand things.
6 years, especially the last 6 years, don't count.

Like our great composer Antonio Carlos Jobim once said:

"O*Brasil*não é para*principiantes"

 

[Mineiro]

I first visited Brazil 10 years and have seen amazing improvements to the country. Just as an indication, I have been good friends with a local family close to my house in Recife and I have seen the fortunes of this family change over the years. 6 years ago they lived in a squalid 1 room apartment.. poor as church mice. None of the children had jobs, the father was an odd-job man, the mother a cleaner. Over the years, their fortunes have gone from strength to strength. The father now owns his own construction business, the children have jobs and are earning over the minimum wage, they bought a 3 bedroom apartment and drive a nice car. Both the daughter and son are now married and each own their own apartments. Sometimes you have to look at the impact on a single family to appreciate what is happening at the macro-economic level.

What a nice story. Miracles do happen but I would be very suprised to see such enormous changes take place in the space of six short years without anything illegal going on.

 

[PresidentK]

PresidentK,
I live in this country since the end of the 70's, more then 35 years now.
But reading your posts I wonder where, in what country you live.
Do you read any newspaper in Brazil, about Brazil, our economics?
Or news from outside Brazil, Economist, FT or any newspaper now adays?
On what planet called Brazil you live?
In the 80's, president Sarney, Brazilian default and inflation of more then 80% a month, we said: It can't get worse, only better".
Now, 2014, we all agree: "It only can get worse, not better".
The country has been ruined by the PT Labour Party (???) fot almost 12 years now.
It will take years to climb up again.
Meanwhile, ofcourse RE prices will drop, who can affort these prices.
Don't be suprissed if this drop will be more then 40-50%.
It wount be the first time.

Think you have to live some years more in this beautifull country to understand things.
6 years, especially the last 6 years, don't count.

Like our great composer Antonio Carlos Jobim once said:

"O*Brasil*não é para*principiantes"

I graduated from the University of London with a doctorate in economics and have worked for over 15 years in senior positions within the oil industry; so… yes I do have a basic understanding of economics. I do read The Financial Times (indeed I have written some articles for it) and I divide my time between Europe and Brazil. The ‘stuff’ you get in these learned journals are just forecasts… you could quote me articles supporting Brazil's decline, I could quote you articles (including ones from Robert Shiller, Nobel in Economic Science and generally viewed as an authority on economic trending) showing continued growth and prosperity. I am sure we don’t want to get into “tit for tat”… just agree to disagree, I guess.

One thing's for sure nobody shares your view that Brazil could return to a politically de-stable economy shored up by militants; moreover, every economic observer I've had a pizza with has been genuinely encouraged by Brazil’s economic transformation in the last six years (you know.. the ones that you said “don’t count”).

I think you and the ever entertaining Meneiro have this fixed thing going on in your brains that “the end of Brazil is nigh”... I don’t share it, the long-term economics doesn’t support it. I could go into long and tedious details about it; but do you know what.. I think I’d rather just have a beer and leave you two doomsayers to yourselves. Good night.

 

[Mineiro]

I graduated from the University of London with a doctorate in economics and have worked for over 15 years in senior positions within the oil industry; so… yes I do have a basic understanding of economics. I do read The Financial Times (indeed I have written some articles for it) and I divide my time between Europe and Brazil. The ‘stuff’ you get in these learned journals are just forecasts… you could quote me articles supporting Brazil's decline, I could quote you articles (including ones from Robert Shiller, Nobel in Economic Science and generally viewed as an authority on economic trending) showing continued growth and prosperity. I am sure we don’t want to get into “tit for tat”… just agree to disagree, I guess.

One thing's for sure nobody shares your view that Brazil could return to a politically de-stable economy shored up by militants; moreover, every economic observer I've had a pizza with has been genuinely encouraged by Brazil’s economic transformation in the last six years (you know.. the ones that you said “don’t count”).

I think you and the ever entertaining Meneiro have this fixed thing going on in your brains that “the end of Brazil is nigh”... I don’t share it, the long-term economics doesn’t support it. I could go into long and tedious details about it; but do you know what.. I think I’d rather just have a beer and leave you two doomsayers to yourselves. Good night.

Just aswell you have a doctorate in economics, or I would have thought you had no idea what you were talking about. There are plenty of probably even better educated economists working for the current Brazilian government and look at what a fantastic job they are doing. I sure the same goes for Argentina, Venezuela, Bolivia and Cuba. It doesn't mean to say that they know how to run a country.
I would be interested in reading the article from Robert Schiller, as I'm sure many others on this forum would be.I would also be interested in knowing who these economic observers are? Which long term economics support "continued growth and prosperity"?I'm sure noone would be bored by the "long and tedious details". Infact I'm sure everyone would actually like some real figures to backup your optimistic views.
Mind you I'm sure if I was being paid a small fortune for contract work with Petrobras and had no long term prospects here in Brazil, I would probably be far more upbeat as to the current situation.

 

[Mineiro]

I graduated from the University of London I divide my time between Europe and Brazil. Brazil could return to a politically de-stable economy shored up by militants; I think I’d rather just have a beer

I have to agree with you there. However while you're having your beer think about how Brazil is number 85 in the 2012 HDI list. It comes well behind countries such as Albania,Venezuela,Iran,Libya,and Romania. Venezuela is 14 places ahead,Cuba is 26, while Chile and Argentina are at numbers 40 and 45 . Is this progress?

 

[imparamvir]

Enjoying to reading this forum having lot of information.

 

[imparamvir]

what are the property prices here

 

[Mineiro]

I graduated from the University of London with a doctorate in economics and have worked for over 15 years in senior positions within the oil industry; so… yes I do have a basic understanding of economics. I do read The Financial Times (indeed I have written some articles for it) and I divide my time between Europe and Brazil. The ‘stuff’ you get in these learned journals are just forecasts… you could quote me articles supporting Brazil's decline, I could quote you articles (including ones from Robert Shiller, Nobel in Economic Science and generally viewed as an authority on economic trending) showing continued growth and prosperity. I am sure we don’t want to get into “tit for tat”… just agree to disagree, I guess.

One thing's for sure nobody shares your view that Brazil could return to a politically de-stable economy shored up by militants; moreover, every economic observer I've had a pizza with has been genuinely encouraged by Brazil’s economic transformation in the last six years (you know.. the ones that you said “don’t count”).

I think you and the ever entertaining Meneiro have this fixed thing going on in your brains that “the end of Brazil is nigh”... I don’t share it, the long-term economics doesn’t support it. I could go into long and tedious details about it; but do you know what.. I think I’d rather just have a beer and leave you two doomsayers to yourselves. Good night.

Why so silent all of a sudden? You have previously stated that you work in the oil industry and given that Petrobras is in the middle of the world's biggest corruption scandal, maybe it's not a suprise you have disappeared so sharply. I wonder what your famous economists must be saying at the moment, since inflation is predicted to finish 2015 at 8.5%, unemployment is increasing rapidly, industry confidence is at it's lowest on record and no economist other than Guido Mantegna would say that the economy has been well handled over the last 8 years. I wonder why the TCU will reject the actual governments accounting for 2014? ISTOÉ Independente - Brasil. I am glad that I need not be ashamed of anything that I have written.

 

[nmb]

The economic woes which Brazil is currently experiencing together with the Zika crisis may well cancel out any feelgood factor that property investors expected from the forthcoming Olympics. Even though Brazil is South America's most influential economy it is struggling and the political scene is not helping.