WARNING- get out before you get in

[jonwell]

hi, let me first say i had a bit of time on my hands and came across this forum,
i really don't know wheither to envey or pity on those who still hold property or properties in dubai....even god can't help you there.

price expected to fall a further 15-20% by jan 2010 there is no market. these little shoe boxes that you haave bought is just an illusion sorry for spelling i sold out back in 2006 when i saw people still buying it was nothing more than to buy and then sell as the momentum was going on.

get out now and you know what the law is...
well my friend bernard left his car a top range mercedes with the keys inside and a note saying sorry can't afford it bye.. if he didn't pay his loan or flat mortgage payments he would have gone to prison yes you read right PRISON.

check the law out yourself.....
sell sell sell for godsake make that little loss but get out.

i am just going out for a swim in my pool and i keep you post tomorrow enough for today.....
bye

 

[Stephendxb]

Don't sell just yet..

An interesting post, but I must point out that buying and selling property is not like buying and selling on the stock market. It should be viewed (in my opinion, as a long term investment) not for short term gain, which is now to the detriment of many speculators with very little or no understanding of real estate. That said, if you had been a savvy investor you would have sold in the second / third quarter of 2008 and not 2006. So I guess you are now renting….if so that’s money down the drain.

As for you friend leaving his car, I hope he realises that walking away from his financial difficulties doesn’t mean they will just disappear, in fact it will probably end up with him having even worse repercussions later down the road. Financial debt is a global institution.

If you understand real estate, then selling now is not the best option. However I concede certain individuals may have no other option, but I would recommend independent financial advice to many. (It’s free)

Enjoy your swim….

 

[jonwell]

reply

hi there,
no i think when your in any market the name of the game is to make money,
no point holding on to something if the value is going to go up/down and when i came out in 2006 for me i had hit my profit ceiling in which i was happy.

dubai has nothing to offer i been there and seenit myself...it's nothing more than a building site which in return offer nothing.

there is no industry it's been bailed out by abu dabbi for over 75billion it's a total collapse.....

more on this i just need to get back to my trades.....
p.s speak maybe this evening.....

 

[Dod]

Jonwell. I don't think it's fair to say that Dubai has nothing to offer. It is a natural trading hub and always will be, especially when you consider that it is well placed to handle Chinese goods coming west. It also has some tourism as a side business.

There is clearly an over-supply of property, but that should keep costs down for quite a while and help Dubai's competitiveness. Companies and individuals should actually have an affordable cost base again. The people who bought at the peak are the ones footing the bill for this I'm afraid.

 

[lister]

my hunch is that jonwell regrets his decision to have sold. He jumped, (this time in his pool) and thinks that he has done the right thing.

Yes - price were inflated and have dropped to 2006 levels.
Yes - Dubai needs to address some very serious issues.

- but

just hang in there.....patience is the key here.

- I have a long term vision and a long term plan. I personally see property as a roof over my head - it can be used - dont always view it as instant gratification.

By 2016 Duabi will be more of an official Singapore or Hong Kong and poor jonwell will be gutted

 

[sasherwani2]

my hunch is that jonwell regrets his decision to have sold. He jumped, (this time in his pool) and thinks that he has done the right thing.

Yes - price were inflated and have dropped to 2006 levels.
Yes - Dubai needs to address some very serious issues.

- but

just hang in there.....patience is the key here.

- I have a long term vision and a long term plan. I personally see property as a roof over my head - it can be used - dont always view it as instant gratification.

By 2016 Duabi will be more of an official Singapore or Hong Kong and poor jonwell will be gutted

I suggest you study Hong Kong and Singapore' s economies before you even think of comparing UAE to those places.

 

[Wannaberich]

An interesting post, but I must point out that buying and selling property is not like buying and selling on the stock market. It should be viewed (in my opinion, as a long term investment) not for short term gain, which is now to the detriment of many speculators with very little or no understanding of real estate. That said, if you had been a savvy investor you would have sold in the second / third quarter of 2008 and not 2006. So I guess you are now renting….if so that’s money down the drain.

As for you friend leaving his car, I hope he realises that walking away from his financial difficulties doesn’t mean they will just disappear, in fact it will probably end up with him having even worse repercussions later down the road. Financial debt is a global institution.

If you understand real estate, then selling now is not the best option. However I concede certain individuals may have no other option, but I would recommend independent financial advice to many. (It’s free)

Enjoy your swim….

Great post

 

[jonwell]

hi,
thank you for the comments i have read them all, no i don't regret selling at all a profit is a profit not on just some paper. i really laugh when i read comments about dubai being the next hub...dream on dreamers. dubai is already handling shipping cargo from china etc. but there is no industry or services and besides we should have all learnt by now that services can be move from one place to another. As far as torisum excuse my spelling it's expensive for the average joe public. and no way will it be ever the next hong kong now your really dreaming. it's running out of oil and investors have abandoned dubai hence the bailout from abu dabbi. in fact abu dabbi is the main creditor to dubai. You can't make a hong kong just out of thin air it's been around 100 years and it manufactured in large quanties from electronics to toys to watches to sports wear. singapore is excatly the same it manufactured electronics, toys, batteries etc.. it also had insurance insitutions and strong banking sector which is still strong and now they are coming out of this global mess. their GDP is up by 2% while dubai never even got a look at. even the IMF refuse to bail it out.
i am not the one sorry i have done it and soon looking to exit my investment before the next coming bubble. hey i am comfortable i can't and won't pridict the top or the bottom but i would be happy to come out nicly rewarded in between and move on to my next venture.
oh by the way i haven't got a pool but i have quotes in the region of £55000. and looking for the right design then maybe invite you to jump in to if your still holding on to dubai....lol
there is no long term make or break that's the name no point enjoying yourself when your 40 or so enjoy while your young....

 

[Dod]

Jonwell, I agree with much of what you say ie Dubai has a big problem with huge oversupply, and needed to be bailed out by the Federation.

Many of us could not understand why people were still buying one year to 18 months ago when the market looked risky to say the least for many obvious reasons (which I could list if anyone wants).

I also think you did the right thing selling in 2006 – you had made a target profit and cashed up. People I spoke to at the time said you just have to sell up before the crash. How they thought they would know when the right time to jump off would be is and was beyond me (and beyond them as it turned out).

The simple point I was making is that it is going too far to say that Dubai has “nothing” to offer. Dubai cannot hide from negative press – it deserves much of it. But it is not simply going to fall into the sea as you would think by reading recent articles.

Dubai grew at a relatively sustainable pace due to it being a natural trading hub until the world circumstances earlier in this decade when it had a rush of blood to the head and took on too much.
The fact that they forgot to make proper arrangements for sewage and it is now is pumped just off they beach in Jumeira 3 as it is still so low on the long list of issues to be addressed, is evidence enough of that.

However, the underlying trading hub advantages remain and Dubai will drift back to its original growth rate.

Many people who bought late are hurting now, and they are paying the price for the lower price levels to come which will help businesses and individuals still here as high prices were killing Dubai’s competitiveness.

 

[Dod]

Forgot to mention Jonwell - didn't you know 40 is the new 30?!

 

[jonwell]

hi.
thanks for your reply. i know what your say about the press being to hard about dubai, but i have my own opinion about it and i can see that dubai has nothing more to offer other than expensive holidays as everything is imported in the country they even now importing water from other countires and even the shipping will be under threat as some companies in the african region will begin to merge.... why ship to dubai if you can ship to others i.e ghana or any coast line countries and after all china is buying up assests in these countries. if they are to buy and collect commodities from these african countries they will most certainly ship their products and increase trade.

china does not do as much trade with dubai or uae or with middle east. the fear of pirates taking hold of cargo's but china has built over 60 nuclears subs as well as their normal powered subs and their huge fleet of ships and these are to control and monitor their shipping lanes.

dubai and UAE is all an imaginery fairy tale nobody would want to visit for a hoilday and buy and $10 sandwich while USA is basically throwing food at you.

dubai is not agriculture strong any country which is not will be finding it hard to compete in the world areana.

if you live in dubai your food is imported so your wages have to be high in order for you to buy and if the wages is high how you going to compete.
dubai's currency rate as been the same for 20 years so how can any one say they have done well. their roads jammed with traffic.

i could go on and on and on but you get the picture.

i will write more negative points in the next few days.....
take care all of you spend wisely......bye

 

[MarianL]

Jonwell you are so negative and arrogant! To say that Dubai has nothing to offer is complete and utter rubbish. The whole world is having problems and Dubai is just one place on that list. I have a few friends who have lost jobs but the majority of them have found new ones right here and have not had to move. My life here is good, we have some of the best golf courses in the world (which are now much more affordable to play),beaches (yes, problems with sewage which are being dealt with) and lots of entertainment. And now that prices are very low people can actually afford to live somewhere a bit more decent (whether that be renting or buying). Don't forget that there are people out there that actually by a house as a place to live and not just as a money making vehicle (and isn't this the hub of the Dubai property problem - all those greedy investors buying lots of property just to make a quick buck).

Anyway I like it here, I have a roof over my head that I paid for and it doesn't matter for the time being if it is worth less than I paid for it because in the last few years it has saved me a whole bunch of expensive rent!

 

[jonwell]

hey just having a golf course and a few entertaiment items does make a better place i live in a city that has all that but it doesn't make it any better.

i see your point of view because you live there but if you are a non resident things will only get worse and if i was you i would run while you get your money in your pocket.

dreaming is not criminal... i can see your dreaming but what is the point working for a asset that is falling in price....it is only matter of time before dubai will face real problems.

i have to go now but more on this later.

i will reveal to you soon why it is bad and what's going to happen in next few posts..
bye

 

[jonwell]

hi,
my purpose is not to down talk dubai, don't get me wrong the people who live there think there is no other place than dubai. You can't blame them either.

When people or investors say it's a global problem it's a global recession, it's not i bet you don't even know how it came to this.

dubai was a short lived dream of money making and it's government put it self in to this mess by commiting and over commiting to projects which were unnecessary. they did't need to make man made islands etc.

as oil was drying up they could have gone in to other wise projects which could have brought long term stability to dubai.

it could have been a big player in financial and insurance and marine insurance.
it could have played a big part in shipping etc... but no it created it's own bubble.

2-5 years you will be picking up apartments around $15000.00 and that is reasonable.

 

[Stephendxb]

The more positive side

Dear Jonwell,

You seem to have a very one sided view of life at present and I cannot understand why. I am only guessing that you have had some sort of negative experience here which is mitigating your judgement of Dubai and its society as a whole.

So let’s tackle your first assumption that nobody on this forum (unless you meant just those living in Dubai) has an understanding of how the global recession came about.

Lower down payments led to housing prices that outpaced income growth: Once government-sponsored efforts to decrease down payments spread to the wider market, home prices became increasingly un-tethered from any kind of demand limited by borrowers’ ability to pay. Low interest rates made borrowing cheap; the "feelgood factor" which masked how out-of-kilter the world economy had become beneath the surface, with some countries running up enormous debts by borrowing from others, including China and the Middle East.
Despite these imbalances, so called "financial wizards" managed to convince themselves and the world's politicians that they had found clever ways to spread risk throughout financial markets. That meant when the reckoning came it was extreme, starting in summer 2007 and culminating in the near-collapse of the entire world financial system after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers.
In summary, it was the failure to foresee the timing, extent and severity of the crisis and to head it off. There was a very complicated, interconnected set of issues, rather than one particular person or one particular institution.
Next on your hit list is the Dubai Dream.

Dubai is certainly not a short lived dream. In fact the word “dream” is almost a contradiction of terms. To understand Dubai you need to take a step back in time and have a greater understanding of the vision and prosperity that has built up over the many years. Yes, Dubai got over zealous with certain projects prior to the recession, but many of these were fuelled by investors or rather “speculators” from all regions of the world. Many of whom wanted simply to be part of the phenomenal growth that was underlining the foundations of the U.A.E and specifically Dubai as a truly International player in terms of global acceptance. I believe Dubai will actual emerge a stronger in the long run as a result of amended laws that will be applied and the cancellation of many projects.

As for oil, Dubai has long know the limitations of this resource and has since diversified it’s reliance for many years. Take Jebel Ali free zone for example which has been in operation for over 24 years.

The UAE is also emerging as a strong financial centre, but I will let those far more knowledgeable than I reply.

Wherever you live in the world, at the end of the day life is what you make of it. W all have our ups and downs...

As for the price of property going to the levels you suggest, well it would actually stimulate the economy further, so that debate should be saved for another day. I have my own predictions on prices and sadly ( my first negative) they don't match yours...

 

[georgihh]

hi,
my purpose is not to down talk dubai, don't get me wrong the people who live there think there is no other place than dubai. You can't blame them either.

When people or investors say it's a global problem it's a global recession, it's not i bet you don't even know how it came to this.

dubai was a short lived dream of money making and it's government put it self in to this mess by commiting and over commiting to projects which were unnecessary. they did't need to make man made islands etc.

as oil was drying up they could have gone in to other wise projects which could have brought long term stability to dubai.

it could have been a big player in financial and insurance and marine insurance.
it could have played a big part in shipping etc... but no it created it's own bubble.

2-5 years you will be picking up apartments around $15000.00 and that is reasonable.

Let’s not upset the believers as I need to sell. Let them splash the cash in the desert and wait for a miracle. Dubai is finished unless AD splash the cash, but nothing happen for the last 10 months and I will be selling very soon

 

[SSM]

So here I am earning 23% yield on a couple of flats in Dubai in 2006. What do I do? I sell. So where do I put my money???
Hong Kong....no, going down the tube like everyone else. Singapore......no, exports reliant on US market which started this whole mess in the first place. US, UK....no, plunging house prices, equities and interest rates.
Damn, if I simply left it in Dubai, I would still be earning around 13% yield even today!!!! Oh bugger. I should have just left my money where it was making money.....which is what I did! Double bonus with the exchage rate falling so my return into GBP has increased by another 20%.

Some people talk nonsense because they have lost money and have had bad experiences in Dubai. Others stay calm, ride out the storm and can see some places still have more to offer than most other choices.

 

[jonwell]

to stephend
i have my own view and that is not going to change i strongly believe in making short term gains and huge profits and soucing out to find new projects.

you can not say dubai is the same mess as the us or the u.k because the US will come out of the recession before other countries..the US is agriculure strong produces food for the world for example WHEAT it produces more than it needs so it exports and same with corn oranges barley rice potatoes just about anything. teaxes has the economy equivlent to india's gdp. As for manufactiuring it can still produce and that why china and western nations fear of protection if you know what i mean.
now dubai apart from being a desert graveyard and nothing more, it has nothing to offer when will you all realise that. i will chat more on this but i have to go out.

the person who is earning 23% or so yields can keep those yields because when time changes and it will you would need to put everything back in to save your investment.
i myself would not invest in anything if i don't get at least 15-20% return on my investment within 60 days yes 60 days. i am not a medium term or long term investor. i leave long term investing to the people who i make money from if it wasn't for those guys i wouldn't be making my handsome returns it's because of the medium and long term investors i have a huge range of sports cars and my friends we always have a laugh.
we have no worries if the market is going up/down we make sure everything we do is hedged meaning we have buyers already to take off investments what they see LONG TERM....lol

more on this as i really have to go out for my evening.

 

[jonwell]

oh by the way if i told you where to put your money in where we going to you could make 17% return within 28 days.....

and yes it is some where in the US

 

[MarianL]

Hmm, jonwell are you for real or just a wind-up merchant?

Anyway, desert graveyard - rubbish - and generally you speak complete tosh. But I guess from the perspective of greed and arrogance that you seem to take - if you can't make a quick buck off people in the short term then you are not interested. Good job there are people in this world who have the vision and patience to carry real things through.

By the way a friend of mine runs a business hiring out cranes and he is fully booked for the next 4 months at least and is actually busier than ever so I don't think things are that bad.

Even my flat at current value yields over 10% return which is pretty good compared to almost any other economy.