Time to buy Greenback as value walls against Sterling and the Euro

B

BenjaminFX

New Member
Friday 8th April 2011

There now seems little reason to hold on to the volatility of the US Dollar as a safe haven currency, despite recent increases to the employment numbers there are too main short term issues pegged to the greenback.

The US Dollar has seen tremendous losses against Sterling and the Euro following yesterday’s round of interest rate decisions from the UK and EU. This morning’s levels show that the greenback is at a 15 month low against the Euro and 16 month low verses the Great British Pound.

On release, the results of the Euro zone increasing to the cost of borrowing barely move the 17 nation currency against Sterling as most traders had factored in a 0.25 percent interest rate hike from the beginning of the week. Surprisingly, the opposite was seen as the Euro briefly lost some ground against GBP and USD.

Insisting that rate decision will not hurt Ireland and the other so called ‘periphery’ Euro zone states, the President of the European Central Bank, Jean Claude Trichet, maintained that the councils decision was not intended to help or hurt any one country.

With a record of keeping the average level inflation below the ECB’s target level of 2 percent, Mr Trichet spoke of the governing council’s tough duty saying “We do what we have to do even when it is difficult and not necessarily pleasing to everyone, that’s our job.”

Meanwhile the Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England continued, as expected, to freeze interest rates at 0.5 percent. Early indications that the MPC would keep levels static could be seen when the Governor of the Bank of England, Mervin King, said last month that small hike was merely a ‘gesture’ to tackle inflation.

Yes the idea that a quarter percent increase will stem inflation is balderdash. However, unlike the swerving nature of King, the ECB President has gone headlong with the issue and despite the effects to the periphery states is working to deal with the problem.

I would predict that within the mid term the MCP will follow suit and raise UK interest rates, possibly at the beginning of Q3. The ECB will no doubt act quickly to maintain its momentum and continue with a swift succession of quarter percent hikes, possibly bi-monthly, throughout the year.

And finally..

A big weekend of sport lies ahead with the Grand National on Saturday and the Masters coming to its conclusion on Sunday. Rory McIlroy has had a perfect start to the tournament but can he hold his nerve this time unlike at last years Open when he pressed the self destruct button in round two, I am sure he would be happy to card an even par round today.

The yearly lottery of the Grand National is upon us again with many offices getting out the sweepstake kit. There is a feeling amongst the racing community that Don’t Push It could become the first horse since Red Rum to retain the title, however I would suggest that top weight will be just too much.

Have a great weekend and good luck to anyone taking a punt.

Foreign Exchange Rates Table
Currency Pairs Current Mid-Rates at 9.00am

GBP - EUR 1.1375

EUR - GPB 0.8791

GBP - USD 1.6397

EUR - USD 1.4414

GBP - AUD 1.5568

GBP - CAD 1.5642

GBP - NZD 2.0989

GBP - CHF 1.4973

GBP - HKD 12.7380

GBP - NOK 8.8770

GBP - SEK 10.2520

GBP - ZAR 10.90

GBP - THB 49.23

GBP - AED 6.0225

GBP - MAD 12.8619

GBP - ILS 5.6393

GBP - TRY 2.4650

GBP - JPY 139.75

These are indicative rates, not buy rates
 
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