New oil field?Bull !

[Wannaberich]

Anyone who seriously believes Dubai has just discovered a new oil field that will save it is deluded.To much of a coincidence it would be discovered now when Dubai is in such a financial mess.The reality is they probably know of it a long time ago but have only just announced it to pacify the financial world and those they owe money to.The reason it wasnt announced before when it was really discovered is probably because its very small.
The reality is Dubai is in a mess.The goverment is broke and relying on AD to be its saviour which will come at a cost.Property prices have nosedived and are now predicted to fall another 20/30%.Millions of investors will and have loss fortunes not just through falling prices but also because of the thousands of conmen who have been allowed to run wild in Dubai.The goverment itself being the biggest criminals.
Population is down and will take a long time to get to 2007 levels.Nothing new is being built for tourism and it seems few new businesses are arriving.
The current goverment are incompetent and incapable of getting Dubai out of this mess alone.
I do still believe in 5+years things could be alot better and Dubai can still become a great city.Those in power will hopefully have learnt from the mistakes of the past which will not be repeated.
Those who have money invested in Dubai will not have much to cheer about for the next few years.Lower and lower rents alongside expensive maint costs make renting a waste of time.If u can sell now and get your money back then sell.
If you are ok to wait then in a few years time you may be thankful you did.
However for now Dubai is screwed.

 

[georgihh]

Anyone who seriously believes Dubai has just discovered a new oil field that will save it is deluded.To much of a coincidence it would be discovered now when Dubai is in such a financial mess.The reality is they probably know of it a long time ago but have only just announced it to pacify the financial world and those they owe money to.The reason it wasnt announced before when it was really discovered is probably because its very small.
The reality is Dubai is in a mess.The goverment is broke and relying on AD to be its saviour which will come at a cost.Property prices have nosedived and are now predicted to fall another 20/30%.Millions of investors will and have loss fortunes not just through falling prices but also because of the thousands of conmen who have been allowed to run wild in Dubai.The goverment itself being the biggest criminals.
Population is down and will take a long time to get to 2007 levels.Nothing new is being built for tourism and it seems few new businesses are arriving.
The current goverment are incompetent and incapable of getting Dubai out of this mess alone.
I do still believe in 5+years things could be alot better and Dubai can still become a great city.Those in power will hopefully have learnt from the mistakes of the past which will not be repeated.
Those who have money invested in Dubai will not have much to cheer about for the next few years.Lower and lower rents alongside expensive maint costs make renting a waste of time.If u can sell now and get your money back then sell.
If you are ok to wait then in a few years time you may be thankful you did.
However for now Dubai is screwed.

How come suddenly you have changed your vision and face the reality? What happened to you? You the one who so arrogantly defended the Dubai mess.

 

[Wannaberich]

How come suddenly you have changed your vision and face the reality? What happened to you? You the one who so arrogantly defended the Dubai mess.

Unlike yourself I did give a balanced view.My posts contain the good and bad of Dubai unlike some on here like yourself who can only see the negative.
There was no arrogance in my posts.
As for changing my vison,I havent.I still think Dubai can and will probably become a great city but I think it will have to go through a difficult few years before it gets to that point.Ive said that before so its nothing new.
No-one knew of Dubais financial mess and did not predict what happened in November so as time moves on and situations change then opinions can alter.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing.
If you are so negative on the place then I question as for what purpose you use this website.
Maybe you're just a pessimistic person who likes to wallow in negativity?

 

[georgihh]

Unlike yourself I did give a balanced view.My posts contain the good and bad of Dubai unlike some on here like yourself who can only see the negative.
There was no arrogance in my posts.
As for changing my vison,I havent.I still think Dubai can and will probably become a great city but I think it will have to go through a difficult few years before it gets to that point.Ive said that before so its nothing new.
No-one knew of Dubais financial mess and did not predict what happened in November so as time moves on and situations change then opinions can alter.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing.
If you are so negative on the place then I question as for what purpose you use this website.
Maybe you're just a pessimistic person who likes to wallow in negativity?

Ok, nothing against you, just I am pleased, that you are more realistic in your recent post.
Apology if I upset you in any way.
I use the forum, because I live and own properties in Dubai. The forum gives me realistic idea for the property trend in Dubai.

 

[Wannaberich]

Ok, nothing against you, just I am pleased, that you are more realistic in your recent post.
Apology if I upset you in any way.
I use the forum, because I live and own properties in Dubai. The forum gives me realistic idea for the property trend in Dubai.

No offence taken.
I dont think Ive been unrealistic in the past.My opinions were based on the situation in Dubai at the time of writing.Obviously situations change for the better or worst so opinions can change with it.What hasnt changed is that I still believe Dubai can be a great city but it will now take longer.
Those who predicted Dubai will fail said so without any credible proof.No one knew about Dubais debts and no-one can know if these will eventually be paid off.

Dubai is still a very inviting place to live and work.The troubles of the last two years is maybe the best thing that could have happened.Building etc was out of control.Too much too fast.Now thankfully much of what was to be built is now cancelled for good.Infrastruture can now catch up.The new roads/bridges and especially the metro will be a big boost.Property to buy/rent,whether residential or commercial is much more affordable so therefore will attract more people.
The fundamentals are there but this of course doesnt guarantee Dubai will succeed.
New laws are needed to protect people.Dubai is trying to be a modern city but without organisation.
Also a problem is mixing westerners into an islamic country.The more westerners that come into Dubai and make Muslims even more of a minority may cause big problems.Drinking,drugs,crime,western culture etc will Dubai cope is a big question.

 

[Brendan R]

Dubai 5 year CDS traded at 660 today, back to November highs....

The 2014 Dubai bond yields more than 10% now....

Not out of the woods yet.... Abu Dhabi must do more....

How can developpers keep on asking down payments from investors when projects are frozen?

If Dubai government bonds pay 10%, what should a deposit with an unated developper pay? 25%? 40%?

Problems in Greece show that peripheral economies have started collapsing...

 

[georgihh]

Dubai 5 year CDS traded at 660 today, back to November highs....

The 2014 Dubai bond yields more than 10% now....

Not out of the woods yet.... Abu Dhabi must do more....

How can developpers keep on asking down payments from investors when projects are frozen?

If Dubai government bonds pay 10%, what should a deposit with an unated developper pay? 25%? 40%?

Problems in Greece show that peripheral economies have started collapsing...

$ can go up – we can recover some of the lose trough forex.
4.00 Dhs = 1Euro by year end why not. This is the only way out of the mess

 

[oasis2buyer]

Oils ain't Oils and this would have to be the biggest dud find of the century - nothing has been confirmed and there is certainly no one drilling for it.

 

[Kjarkata]

Just my guess, I assume no one is sure about how much Dubai govt owes which it needs to pay back and the banks investments as loans in property which do not exist today and may be never will be built. Afterall, the banks have the money of the people, so if banks lose, you would find many persons losing their savings as well.

 

[oasis2buyer]

"restructuring $22bn of debt of state-owned conglomerate Dubai World. Still, the field was unlikely to pump enough oil to have a major impact on the emirate's revenues, oil industry sources said."

"already bailed out by the federal government once — from defaulting and cutting off overseas financing channels for the emirate whose six-year oil boom burst last year"

"$80bn debt and a show of support from policymakers may not be enough to convince sceptical investors that the emirate could pay back its bond obligations."

"A $10 billion bail out by Abu Dhabi has allowed the company to continue to make debt payments, but it has yet to reach a formal standstill agreement with creditors."

"Earlier this year, the Dubai government set up the Dubai Financial Support Fund (DFSF) to help its ailing government-controlled companies."

"The crisis battered property values in Dubai and slowed its ambitious growth plans as it struggled to find a solution to a crippling debt load that has been estimated at $85bn, a total greater than Dubai’s annual GDP."

"oil represents less than five per cent of the emirate's $54 billion (Dh198.6 billion) gross domestic product (GDP)"

"It's unclear if the bailout will be enough to keep Dubai from turning into a cityscape of half-finished buildings. Dubai said last week that a handful of international banks participated in a modest refinancing of one loan, for $3.8 billion, that was coming due. But they didn't agree to lend much, forcing Dubai's government to step in and pony up most of the cash."

"Banks, meanwhile, aren't lending to buyers or to developers.

"Suddenly, the sales stopped, and when [developers] went to the banks, they found there was a credit freeze," says Saleh Muradweij, a director at privately held contractor Drake & Scull.

Jim Delkousis, a partner in the Dubai practice of DLA Piper, a business law firm, says the practice has seen a "significant increase" in debt-collection claims in the construction industry.

Last week, Emaar Properties PJSC, which is one of Dubai's biggest developers and 31% government-owned, said it will recommend withholding dividends at its annual meeting next month in order to save cash."

"Now, prices are tumbling just as builders complete dozens of office and residential towers, and the glut of supply looks poised to depress prices further. Cranes loom over dozens of half-finished or just-started buildings along Sheikh Zayed Road, the eight-lane superhighway that serves as Dubai's main artery."

"You have these buildings that are finished now, but empty," says Robert Macnair, sales director for Dubai-based property agent Elysian Real Estate."

"DUBAI - Abu Dhabi's $10 billion December bailout to Dubai included $5 billion already committed by two banks controlled by the emirate, signalling Abu Dhabi's cautious approach to helping its debt-laden neighbour.

"Analysts said news that Abu Dhabi had directly lent less than previously thought also indicated the wealthy emirate wanted more evidence of Dubai's fiscal probity, after helping it avert an embarrassing default on a state-linked bond."

sources www.
arabianbusiness.com/572622-dubais-debt-move
business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/markets/the_gulf/article6934261.ece
arabianbusiness.com/580735-dubai-debt-insurance-costs-rise-on-dubai-world-doubts
thenational.ae/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20091214/BUSINESS/912149991/1001/RSS
gulfnews.com/opinions/editorials/oil-find-will-boost-economic-prospects-1.578488
online.wsj.com/article/SB123532630416442781.html
business.maktoob.com/20090000421162/Abu_Dhabi_s_Dubai_aid_shrinks_to_5_bln/Article.htm

 

[samsaf]

A follow up on the newly discovered oil field

The newly discovered oil field in early 2010, will be developed:

Global Industries-Lamprell JV wins Dubai oil field contract | Energy, Oil and Gas | AMEinfo.com

However, how much oil is there is still unknown. If someone has information which can be shared please do.

It would be interesting if oil would play any significant role in Dubai future.

 

[samsaf]

Update on the status of the oil production in Dubai

Dubai to raise awareness on real cost of energy - Emirates24|7

The key phrase is:
"The new field, located east of the Rashid oilfield and which was called al-Jalila after a daughter of Dubai ruler Sheikh Mohammed, is expected to "increase the production of crude in Dubai significantly."

A field that size would give Dubai additional revenues of around $750,000 per day, or some $270 million per year, Reuters reported. Industry experts however noted that not all of this would be additional production or revenue, as Dubai is battling declining production from its mature oilfields. Output stands at around 50,000 to 70,000 barrels per day, down from a peak over 400,000 bpd in 1991."

 

[rkolinko]

In my opinion it seems over the last 12 years or so Dubai has been trying to move away from the dependency of oil revenues - hence the statement that "oil revenues represent only 5 % of Dubai's GDP". In saying that, it might be a good relief knowing that there is now more oil left and they can benefit from it. In taking world OPEC standards exporting 50,000-70,000 b/day is low as in comparison to other OPEC members exporting 5-9 m/barrels a day. It also depends on the price per barrel and revenues, as we know the consumption increases in winter.

People are saying that Dubai is in a mess, perhaps it is, but who isn't at the moment, is there a single country in the world that hasn't been affected ? Greece, Hungary, Italy bailed out due to their debts, Ireland is in process (maybe they already received the stimulus package - haven't been following news lately),Spain/Portugal on the way, the question is who is next? and is this is a domino effect ? U.K has a huge debt and USA thats just another story all together. Unemployment levels are not really reducing anywhere, its just that Europe is doing bit better now due to low Euro rate make it appealing for product exports at this rate.

As for the Euro it is trying to stay strong due to Economies of Germany and France, but if it happens that there are more European countries to bail out such as Bulgaria, Romania, Macedonia and more, it could bring the Euro down a lot, as when it did from 5.5 AED to 4.8 Spring/Summer 2010.

I am a new user here, and this is my first post so hope i didn't offend anybody .

Thanks