Conflicting reports
If the year end 2008 was marked by the financial international crisis (and the collapse of the biggest stock market world-wide places),this is around the real economies to be impactées with tensions on the activity sectors such as the real estate, the textile, or the automobile, big sources of jobs. As all the countries of the world, Morocco is touched by the crisis. Although some say certain economical leaders. Suddenly, which "credibility" granted to the matter of Anas Sefrioui, CEO of Addoha, first real estate group of the Kingdom, that declared recently "that there was not real estate crisis to Morocco"?
The latter leans on the deficit in social lodgings (about 1 million, according to the official figures) pour…convaincre. Nevertheless, this reality must not constitute a paravent. And the group Addoha is (very) well placed to know it.
In fact, the course of his stock market action does not stop falling - what worried the financial environments of the place – and this for several reasons. First, the crisis that hits the sector of the real estate one (global slowdown of the activity including on the social lodging). Secundo, the action sustained by the market (thanks to the "helps" of certain analysts and by the group himself) while multiplying the announcements (acquisitions of important, partnerships seals, …). Which created a bubble sort that finished by to deflate itself leaving to the tile several investors attracted by the stock market recommendations of certain analysts and the remodelages of the business plan of departure following new sensible operations to improve in a sensitive way the results of the become corporation the locomotive of the place casablancaise. And at last, thirdly, the group results were not at the height of the expectations of the market. At the end of the first part of the year 2008, the group realized only less than one 1/4 of his net result awaited for the year 2008 and this according to his first business plan prepared at the time of his introduction in stock market and that was since clearly reviewed to the increase. "If one takes account of adjustments operated on by the group in his business plan, scarcely 1/8 projected result was attained", indicates a financial analyst.
This is to say that those that had bought the actions Addoha to the strong price hoping a net improvement of the result of the group must wait again. Besides, Anas Sefrioui in person recognized at the time of one of the latter gone out that it would be necessary to await at least at the end of 2009 to realize the objectives that the group had to realize in 2008.
Nevertheless – and to do facing la…crise – the group Addoha justifies the delay take in the realization of its objectives financial by the impossibility to count the advances that result from the sale of apartments. An argument that has paces of "pirouettes". With the instauration of the norms IFRS (new norms accountants international),this argument not more will be able to be used. In fact, and this to count 1st January 2009, the real estate group will be able to count the advances put back by the futures buyers in his report.
Other interrogation of size. Which is the real value of the action Addoha? And which is his level (real) of debt? Known the market, after flirting with summits to 232.50 Dh April 7 2008, the action Addoha exchanges itself today around 85 dirhams. A breathtaking fall that were not able to prevent the operations of buyback of actions by Addoha in order to support his course of stock market. On the action development, the points of differing view according to the analysts.
So some judge that the level of current development is correct, of others, and they are currently more numerous, underline that the action again should lower more towards the 50 Dh. Besides the Fact that places it expects widely inferior results to the anticipations of the business plan updated, another element came worsened his picture.
In fact, according to several sources having wished to keep the anonymity, the group Addoha would very be gotten in debt. Certain do not hesitate to advance the figure of 8 billion Dh. Remain that that remains difficult to confirm …
Lower volume of activities of the real estate sales (and therefore advances),increase of the level of debt (indeed excessive debt) with bank rates that will not lack to grow in case the health of the "gigantic" real estate she was beforehand, and this, so much more than the banks no longer dispose as much margins (liquidities) that by the passed. Can then one wonder on the disturbing results for Addoha: bad management? Errors in the strategic choices with the buyback of Fadesa Morocco and a late offensive on the high standing? Or simple collateral damage of the international crisis?
