Is the Dubai property market falling apart or finding a level?

[Nicholas Wallwork]

The news that UAE property developer Deyaar is offering discounts of up to 30% to investors in some of its developments, and potential swaps for those who have seen their developments postponed or cancelled, has caught the eye of property investors in Dubai.

Check out our article "Is the Dubai property market falling apart or finding a level?" and let us know what you think.....

 

[georgihh]

The news that UAE property developer Deyaar is offering discounts of up to 30% to investors in some of its developments, and potential swaps for those who have seen their developments postponed or cancelled, has caught the eye of property investors in Dubai.

Check out our article "Is the Dubai property market falling apart or finding a level?" and let us know what you think.....

Not falling apart only correction.
We are at the prices of 2006 and the down turn has stopped (still some adjustments are going on). All over the world the prices are at 2005-2006 levels the only deference is that the peak in Dubai was higher. Q/E is going to ease the situation and buyer is already coming on the market. Unfortunately the current prices will not start going up until the demand overcomes the supply sometime 2011. We will see one very stable market with small variations in the next 2 years.
Once Emaar and Nakheel are reduced to 30% of their previous sizes and all the fly-by-night developers disappear, we can say we have reached the bottom.
The quantity is going to be replaced by the quality and the wheel will start rolling again.
Buy to rent is a very good business in Dubai. And the flippers are moving that direction

 

[Brendan R]

Not falling apart only correction.
We are at the prices of 2006 and the down turn has stopped (still some adjustments are going on). All over the world the prices are at 2005-2006 levels the only deference is that the peak in Dubai was higher. Q/E is going to ease the situation and buyer is already coming on the market. Unfortunately the current prices will not start going up until the demand overcomes the supply sometime 2011. We will see one very stable market with small variations in the next 2 years.
Once Emaar and Nakheel are reduced to 30% of their previous sizes and all the fly-by-night developers disappear, we can say we have reached the bottom.
The quantity is going to be replaced by the quality and the wheel will start rolling again.
Buy to rent is a very good business in Dubai. And the flippers are moving that direction

ah ah, let me laugh. What a bunch of nonsense. Who are you trying to persuade? Do you think you'll find suckers on this forum attracted by drowning in the sands of dubai. Come on, get real, game over.

You are not selling a dream anymore, you are perpetuating a nightmare.

 

[samsaf]

ah ah, let me laugh. What a bunch of nonsense. Who are you trying to persuade? Do you think you'll find suckers on this forum attracted by drowning in the sands of dubai. Come on, get real, game over.

You are not selling a dream anymore, you are perpetuating a nightmare.

Well, his post might made you laugh... yours, on the other hand, made me think....

First of all, I am sick and tired from people like you who eagle-eye this forum for anyone who dares to step forward to give a sense of positive review for this chapter of horror in Dubai Saga...

If you choose to close your eyes and ears and your unwilling to see a shread of light within this darkness, it's your choice..

Just please don't bully other forum posters for posting positive news just because it is against your Prophesy that Dubai is coming to an end...

The following are the facts as I saw it: (and I am living in Sharjah for the past 5 years , and my brother travels to Dubai everyday for work)

1) The commuters' traffic from Sharjah going to Dubai didn't decrease at all in the last 4 months... the traffic starts at 6.00am and goes to a standstill by 7.30am and only becomes "ok" by 10.00am.

2) The traffic has indeed decreased in Dubai, however it was due to the goverment's road-related jobs finishing (including some diversions for MetroDubai's stations) and bridges open fully for traffic, thus the traffic jam naturally decreasing...

3) Indeed there has been a lot of layoffs and the demand for housing has decreased... but it's only new back to normal figures 2-3 years ago (e.g. rents for 1 B/R houses in Discovery Garden as decreased from 120,000 DH to 60-70,000 DH) and that's reasonable... talking about 5% of overall house value in rent. That's ok!

4) I've been asking people close and far, how many of your friends has been fired? (i.e. people that you personally know) they would answer, 1 or 2... it's not like people are getting fired left and right... and usually those who do get fired are from Construction companys... but what's the percentage of people who work at construction companys? is it 10 or 20 percent of the overall population?


well... ? it's normal, there is a world-crisis... but you should not blame Dubai and it's system... it was able to rise to this level (with all of it's system's imperfections) and it will be able to rise back again... just give it a break, will you?

of course, if the world economy does recover and Dubai doesn't, well... then you're right... !

5) oh, and Burj Dubai and MetroDubai work is going-on as usuall... no slow in pace, FYI

6) I've visited the Atlantis, and the bars and restaurants are sparkling with life!

7) I've visited the malls, and while the prices are down, people are still buying and dining as usual.. where is this crisis???

8) My company, and oil and gas company, is still hiring... if you're a good talented engineer and want a job, please PM me and I will give you the link to. We're opening a branches right now in Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi...

True, this crisis has effected many people, but not everyone! Not all Dubai's property companies are ******* thieves and not all industries in Dubai are doing bankrupt and not all people are driving the to airport and leaving their cars...

True, it's not the best time to own a propertly, since cash is king, but it doesn't mean that if you own a property then you're automatically going to loss! not on the long run!

Please let's stick to the facts!

 

[georgihh]

ah ah, let me laugh. What a bunch of nonsense. Who are you trying to persuade? Do you think you'll find suckers on this forum attracted by drowning in the sands of dubai. Come on, get real, game over.

You are not selling a dream anymore, you are perpetuating a nightmare.

Extra amount of cash is going to be printed all over the world; the value of the current money will be devaluated, and the prices if not up they will not go down. Very simple[/COLOR]

 

[Sixgun]

Samsaf,

You're probably right on most of what you say, I would think the truth lies somewhere in a mixture of all the above posts.
Unfortunately for Dubai, what Brendan R states, although a bit extreme, neatly sums up the confidence level, of millions of investors around the world.

Dubai has had a bright light of optimism shining on it for years, welcoming foreign investors with open arms, with great promises of visas, tax free-wealth, a whole ex-pat package, and it has been the most keenly observed city in the world.
It still is, people are still watching, as that bright light dims dramatically, and only partially due to worldwide events..

Yes, there has been a world-wide crisis, but recently there has also been too many problems, completely UN-realted to crisis, and more related to laws changing overnight, contracts being with-held, deeds being with-held, cancellation costs being un-decipherable, RERA seeming to be ineffectual, final service charges being unknown, etc etc, and NOBODY from authorities seeming to help the investors who are making the place, or too little too late, at least.

Dubai may well be business as usual from the inside, but from the outside, a worldwide investors view, it's actually closer to Brendan R's version.
I am pretty level headed, but I've invested in Dubai and got out again, and when I sometimes consider re-entering, due to reduced prices, I always end up concluding to myself "Nope, never again, too hard and I don't trust a word I hear from developers, RERA, lawmakers, on any subject about the place"

No doubt I will miss out on fantastic bargains, but after one sleepless year, I'll stick with my health, and markets I trust.

 

[Brendan R]

samsaf, sorry for your sickness, i'd rather have you laughing. I put prophesing the end on Dubai on par with the willingness to perpetuate euphoria and optimism in light of the current situation.

I'm certainly not prophesing the end of Dubai, just the end of rampant speculation that resulted in the real estate mess people face today, not only in Dubai but the world over.

to me, it's game over for real estate hubris, not for Dubai. I wish people there, trying to make an honest living and working in difficult conditions the best one can hope for.

I have no sympathy for manipulators with vested interests trying to keep markets at inflated levels while they gather enough suckers to pass them the hot potato. Let's make sure the excesses we have seen do not come back. Let's hope prices come down and stabilize at affordable levels so that people in Dubai, from any class, can start looking forward to real life and not short term slavery.

damn, I sound like Obama

 

[PropGuy]

Bubble happens, it is not just with Dubai. Read the Florida story http://www.propertyforum.com/forum/dubai-property/12348-florida-re-bubble-interesting-read.html

But it doesn't mean end of the city or state.

I'm personally waiting for the right time and price to enter the market again. If I get PJA 4-bed villa for -20% I'll buy

 

[samsaf]

Brendan R , I would love to laugh as well.. acutally the rollercoaster of the last 3 months has been unbelievble...

It's true, Dubai's dream is coming to an end, a dream of fast millions through realestate and stockmarket is no more... so wake up and smell the coffee...

... ok, so maybe we would not have dubai land or a 2nd or 3rd palm... but hey, we still have the atlants, the burj, sheikzaid road, sport city and motorcity, and marina... all good and respectable near-or-completed properties... and much more...

... I think that whoever got a house with good condition and from a respectable develper (who didn't play the game of inflating the prices, e.g. Union Properties, which sold me the house in 2008 in the same price it selled in 2006... 950sq.ft which was only 100 dh higher than the launch price) will gain the profits within 3-5 years... these properties will become a destination for people who want to live in good communities and the next time Dubai recovers, those people will gain the profits... not huge onces, mind you, but reasonable and just "ok"

Well... I am not a real estate broker or expert... but I've watch this city grawing in the last 5 years... and I that those who take the decisions will simply not allow the whole thing to go under... At least I hope so!

 

[mpat]

I agree with you sam saf,

But the problem is RUMOURS all around in western media which lead the president of the country to clarify the situation of Abu dhabi not buying dubiya companies,

I met some relatives and friends who are investors in dubai from overseas like (UK and Africa ) when i was on vacation in december... and alll were sounding like Dubai is paralysed ! ! ! Dubai is finished etc etc etc ....

where as , in reality, not much has affected except speculators ( Flippers ) , Every day new launch of projects in all corner of the country ! Rising rents and prices of FMCG items. bullish auto dealers like Al futtaim and others. . . .

It true that many people lost jobs due to global recession, but its something that is happened everywhere.

 

[PropGuy]

Good article on bubble economics Daily Kos: Bubble Economics -- and the Cycles of Boom and Bust

 

[ghazwan]

Finding a big resistance level .... BUY at Bargin .... don't be shy to offer 10-20% of asking price

 

[financier888]

Who & Where ?

I have read the posts on this thread and can accept many of the points of view expressed, however, looking into the future of this market - there are two questions that I can't seem to find the answer for - namely - Who? will be these end users and/ renters that will absorb the 70,000 + or - vacant units on or about to come on the market and Where? will they come from?? Especially, as many jobs & businesses are hurting or have folded and the new visa law which grants a property owner 6 months res. - renewable... So - Who will move here? (if they are not here specifically on a job... ) How will Dubai meet it's target to grow this city into the millions in absence of a proper visa? (like Singapore, Malaysia and countless other countries...) I just can't see it...

The other stumbling block has been the proper enforcement of laws that protects investors and with many investors having got burnt or in the process - this will continue to put-off potential investors... (with the worst yet to come...)

Let's say that you are going to buy an investment for rental purposes and not concerned about the visa- with rents already dropping 50% and we're not near the summer yet - when there is another planned exodus after the school year finishes - whom will you find to rent? and at what price..?

i don't think we're even close to seeing the bottom yet and it will take the global economy to recover before you start to see people come back to Dubai and that may take years... (2-3 minimum) In the meantime, the govt has some serious issues to address and more than simple 'decrees' - action is required to really protect the people that have spent their life savings on this vision from the smaller developers who at this point, are seemingly NOT being held accoutable..

let's wait till the summer and come back to this...

 

[PropGuy]

I think visa on real estate will become 3 years renewable visa sooner or later because Qatar is offer 5 years renewable visa on real estate.

As for real estate market it will be slow for 2 to 3 years, imo.

 

[samsaf]

6 months is only the beginning...

... don't forget that the locals are not sure on the implications of such laws... they are afraid... you have to understand that... this is not the USA or Canada were everyone is an immigrant... I imagine that Dubai has asked for 5 years visa and Abu Dhabi opposed the idea strongly... but Dubai has finally been able to convience them "at least let's try it for 6 months... if you don't like it, we will cancel it"

Law here are forged on the "need to forged basis"
a lot of trial-and-error... the victims are, of course, are us..

Well... you have the play the game by the rules... which keeps changing... you have to take it... no other option...

if you don't like it... go to the USA, Europe and Canada... or even Japan... and invest and reside there... of course, once you're there your gonna miss a lot about Dubai...

 

[Pietman0_0]

Well, his post might made you laugh... yours, on the other hand, made me think....

First of all, I am sick and tired from people like you who eagle-eye this forum for anyone who dares to step forward to give a sense of positive review for this chapter of horror in Dubai Saga...

If you choose to close your eyes and ears and your unwilling to see a shread of light within this darkness, it's your choice..

Just please don't bully other forum posters for posting positive news just because it is against your Prophesy that Dubai is coming to an end...

The following are the facts as I saw it: (and I am living in Sharjah for the past 5 years , and my brother travels to Dubai everyday for work)

1) The commuters' traffic from Sharjah going to Dubai didn't decrease at all in the last 4 months... the traffic starts at 6.00am and goes to a standstill by 7.30am and only becomes "ok" by 10.00am.

2) The traffic has indeed decreased in Dubai, however it was due to the goverment's road-related jobs finishing (including some diversions for MetroDubai's stations) and bridges open fully for traffic, thus the traffic jam naturally decreasing...

3) Indeed there has been a lot of layoffs and the demand for housing has decreased... but it's only new back to normal figures 2-3 years ago (e.g. rents for 1 B/R houses in Discovery Garden as decreased from 120,000 DH to 60-70,000 DH) and that's reasonable... talking about 5% of overall house value in rent. That's ok!

4) I've been asking people close and far, how many of your friends has been fired? (i.e. people that you personally know) they would answer, 1 or 2... it's not like people are getting fired left and right... and usually those who do get fired are from Construction companys... but what's the percentage of people who work at construction companys? is it 10 or 20 percent of the overall population?


well... ? it's normal, there is a world-crisis... but you should not blame Dubai and it's system... it was able to rise to this level (with all of it's system's imperfections) and it will be able to rise back again... just give it a break, will you?

of course, if the world economy does recover and Dubai doesn't, well... then you're right... !

5) oh, and Burj Dubai and MetroDubai work is going-on as usuall... no slow in pace, FYI

6) I've visited the Atlantis, and the bars and restaurants are sparkling with life!

7) I've visited the malls, and while the prices are down, people are still buying and dining as usual.. where is this crisis???

8) My company, and oil and gas company, is still hiring... if you're a good talented engineer and want a job, please PM me and I will give you the link to. We're opening a branches right now in Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi...

True, this crisis has effected many people, but not everyone! Not all Dubai's property companies are ******* thieves and not all industries in Dubai are doing bankrupt and not all people are driving the to airport and leaving their cars...

True, it's not the best time to own a propertly, since cash is king, but it doesn't mean that if you own a property then you're automatically going to loss! not on the long run!

Please let's stick to the facts!

Hi Samsaf,

I have a friend who has a degree in Chemical Engineering. He is really keen to rellocate to the middle east to broaden his career experience. Do you think there might be openings available for him in your company...or any others you might be aware of?

He currently works for a leading platinum refinery in South Africa as a processing engineer. He has a typical analytic mind (common for any engineer) and enjoys working in a like minded team.

How can i come in contact with you (If you can help me) I am not sure how to send personal messages.

Thank you very much for offering to help

Kind Regards

 

[Roshan]

The real estate market world over has taken a beating and Dubai is no exception no matter what insulation was percieved by so called optimists.

It was greed that drove Dubai to the high prices that sank a lot of investors. A lot of investments in Dubai will actually not happen and in time to come the properties that are ready would start realizing the returns and possibly get healthy returns.

As for the future 5% ROI is what one should be looking at on rentals.

It's good that the brakes have been put on Dubai as the dreams that they had were not equating to reality.

Green community 5 BDR villas going for 2.9 million. A friend of mine sold the same villa for 5.5 million when the going was good.

In time to come looks like all of us can look at buying villas. Reality has struck realty in Dubai.

Regards

Roshan

 

[Josen]

What investors failed to see was the population statistics of UAE.

The last census figures released with nationality breakdown was of 2005

Population of Asians - 75%
Population of Locals - 11%
Population of Arabs - 6%
Population of Egyptians - 5%
Other Nationalities - 3%

Nationality breakdown of the last census (2007) was NOT released as reportedly the population of Asians had further increased due to the massive influx of Asian construction workers required for the construction boom. Further the % of Asians in Dubai is more than that of AD (Construction workers)

As per census of 2007 the population of UAE was 864,000 UAE nationals and 3.62 million expatriates. Dubai's population was 1.478 million

Even considering the nationality percentages have remained the same, the entire 'construction boom' in Dubai mainly catered to the requirement of the 3% 'others' and 6% 'non-local arabs'. or ± 133,000 persons, as most the construction was too overpriced for renting by the Asians.

The Govt was expecting a 6% yearly increase in population, or 6% of ± 1.5 million = 90,000 of which 9% (3%+6%) is only annual demand of 8,100 high-end housing units. The supply was over 10 times this amount

Further, in Dubai, other than Discovery Gardens & International City, there were no projects catering to the low to middle income expatriates

My reading ..... expatriates from the 3% other countries would rather rent than buy in the current surplus market and penthouses / luxury villas / signature houses will find no occupants. What really will retain value are the cheap studio / one bedrooms that would find demand from the Asian sector

 

[heat_wave]

whats the big deal, i moved to dubai after the boom in November and this market is normal. Its no major disaster. Its just normality. I think people in Dubai were brainwashed into thinking real estate was like playing on the stockmarket. People are buying property now but for the more ordinary reason of having a nice place to live.
Although I have to say I have come across some speculators from cash rich countries sitting on the side waiting to buy units in Burj Dubai etc.
All in all theres no reason to stress about whats happening.

 

[georgihh]

whats the big deal, i moved to dubai after the boom in November and this market is normal. Its no major disaster. Its just normality. I think people in Dubai were brainwashed into thinking real estate was like playing on the stockmarket. People are buying property now but for the more ordinary reason of having a nice place to live.
Although I have to say I have come across some speculators from cash rich countries sitting on the side waiting to buy units in Burj Dubai etc.
All in all theres no reason to stress about whats happening.

Normal Market = Normal Country
Dubai = not normal
The problem is you cannot settle down in Dubai, if you have no job. Once you are terminated nothing you can do, with visit visa you cannot open even bank account (ok not anymore). Dubai is a place to come make good money pack up and go. If you start investing for the future you are finished.
Enjoy your life cash up and go