How long do you think the global economic downturn will last?

[Nicholas Wallwork]

As the worldwide economy continues to struggle, how long do you think the global economic downturn will last?

Please post your ideas, comments and theories and we can discuss the many views and opinions out there.

Have you voted in the above poll?

 

[Prop-erty]

I could not believe only 5 people voted. Come on, give your opinion. It would be interesting to know what others think because our decisions in this market very much depend on what others think.

 

[mickthepropertyguru]

I think it may last for a few years. I think the vast majority of people bought properties overseas with their houses as collateral. Now many people don't have equity in their houses anymore and credit isn't and may never be as free flowing as it once was.
The younger generation are up to their eye balls in debt and the last thing they will do is buy a holiday home/investment abroad.
Firstly there will need to be demand for property, but it will take years to work through the oversupply in all markets.
Cash is king and experienced investors will be able to purchase properties at huge discounts, 50% = 60%, these people will be the winners for sure .

 

[rowlandsbb]

The problem experienced investors have is finding the right products at a discounted price..the good products tend to be kept off the market until the upturn...subject to exceptions of course!
But the dealer is pre eminent just now...taking the risk with the bad stock...in UK for example flats in Manchester,Leeds, Liverpool which were always overpriced for the mug punter in the boom days!!!
All part of the market

But overall the property market is not dealer/ investor lead...it is the life style buyers who are the most important.....first time buyer [ primary home, holiday home, retirement home] and that is confidence lead and the availability of finance
Dealers and experienced investors , dare I say it, live off their back!...anticipating the trend and the product they want
Yet again the world economy is in a mess and UK wise we seems to be in worse s..t that most but when there is a mess there is ' a profit to be made'
My main interest besides UK is Spain
Why?....I like it and it is an easy travel to get there.....and always will
Many with good jobs [ and money] in the boom where thinking of more exotic places to buy but the feed back I have is that ' they now consider Spain the best place for their second home'
Why?
Easy access with the kids to the sun and low risk.....part of EU

It is this type of buyer who will get the market moving again and also the retirement buyer/ part/ full time..........€ for € there is really no better value than Spain

Next EU boom is 10/15 years by which time UK will probably be in the €[?] but a lot of good profit pickings for the good dealers

For life style buyers just now may just be OK.......I have bought a winter home in Spain...so not speaking just as an agent but as a buyer!!!!.....a mature one at that"!!!!

 

[neustria]

It is an error to attempt to make predictions about the economic outlook when the world's economies are intimately tied to extremely serious political developments in the United States, Britain, France, and elsewhere. The political aspect of the current crisis, where the deciders have seized control of the media and are now going to great pains to seemingly make things even worse than they already are, means that this crisis is going to be felt for many years to come. And indeed, I believe that the political crisis is even more serious than the economic crisis.

I am ever the pessimist, I know, but though I had anticipated a serious downturn for quite some time, the current situation is far worst than anything I had ever dared imagine.

 

[LJHooker]

my prediction is about 2-3 years...actually it depends on US Goverment too since this economy crisis start from US.

 

[BartS]

2 years in my opinion but next 6 months would decide i"d say

 

[clarenash]

I think it is hard to know when the property market will improve, I think we will see a gradual improvement over a long period of time rather than something you will notice over night I think we are currently hearing positive things about property sellings and prices rising which is good news but I would imagine we will get to a certain point where we will level out for a little bit and then it will need to be reassessed again.

 

[colombiacommercial]

I think it will take 1-2 years.Now the things are coming on track.More or less it will depends on the economic conditions in US.

 

[rowlandsbb]

Well it now seems that in some countries we are seeing the start of the recovery Uk seems to be the first in and heading for the last out
In property terms the general view is that UK market has turned in good locations
In Spain the good deals like CAM Bank repossessions at 30% discount & 80% LTV mtges, and other banks,are helping the market along and with these terms attracting the non resident buyers again

Overal Spain is expected to be flat for 2010 and then a slow improvement in sales for 2011...next boom starting say 2015/18

So for life style buyers and even investort / dealers there are some very good buys about, if you go to Spain to look

 

[Lysos]

The bottom line is that no-one has a clue !. The so called experts & analysts didn't foresee the global recession, and they can no more predict a recovery either.

As for UK - we don't actually produce anything anymore. The only sector that is profitable is the City; large areas of the country are dependent on taxpayer support i.e. more than 60% of jobs in those areas are public sector - largely unproductive & non essential. Whoever wins the next election will be taking the axe to these areas.

 

[Dan Yurdiga]

We will recover soon. Just as improving our field of specialization.

 

[Triduc]

I think it will not last for another one year, hopefully

 

[Taaha]

Well, as far as middle east is concerned, it will not remain for too much long time and experts are saying that situation will start getting better till the end of this year provided war in Afghanistan may not continue for long.

 

[JamesRoberts]

With respect to the global economic downturn, I would think a broad positive increase is likely in the next 12 months or so (i.e. more countries in the black as opposed to in significant debt in the developed world).

As far as the property market is concerned, given the lessons (hopefully) learned by lenders/borrowers/governments/developers etc, the actual turn around is likely to be a little more niche in my opinion. The boom days similar to 2001-2008 are unlikely to present themselves as widespread as before because of changes in regulation, both at industry level, and in the financial and governmental areas globally. In essence, property investment providers/companies will need to work a bit harder to ensure they are promoting solid products to clients.

 

[brainardridgeapps]

Real Estate is having a big part on the business world, on real estate, selling is not as easy as eating peanuts, you need to have the guts, proper marketing.

 

[barnes86]

I voted 5 years. It lasts already 2 years so... I hope it will end quicker

 

[oregon woodsmoke]

It's already gone on a lot longer than I anticipated, so my guess is already wrong.

It seems to me that everything the governments do makes it worse. If they'd let it work its way out, I believe it would be over by now. Some sharp quick pain, like jerking a band-aid off really quick and getting it over with.

 

[shoeb]

i think it will not take more then that of 2 year from now because markets are going up slowly and inverter are opening their pockets so it will take maximum 2 years or so to do this.

 

[expo09]

It seems to me that everything the governments do makes it worse. If they'd let it work its way out, I believe it would be over by now.

That was the problem in the first place. Governments just letting things happen and letting banks and mortgage companies do whatever they wanted.