Fever pitch over interest rates!

B

BenjaminFX

New Member
Tuesday 5th April 2011

This morning sees the release of the European monetary Union’s Purchasing Manager Index Service, which came in slightly better than expected for the month of March.

The PMI is an indicator of the economic situation in the Euro Zone service sector, capturing an overview of the current levels of sales and employment.

Predicted at 56.9 the actual figure this morning was 57.2; the market has historically shown that anything above 50 marks expansion for the Zone.

However, the service sector figures generally tend not to influence a positive or negative movement as would be seen with other publications such as Gross Domestic Product and PMI Manufacturing figures.

Anticipation is now reaching fever pitch as traders wait for the both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank to announce their respective decision on the current interest rate levels.

Most believe the BoE will be steadfast, that the majority of it’s Monetary Policy Committee will vote to keep the cost of borrowing to the now 24 month level of 0.5 percent.

In terms of the value of the Euro, traders said on Monday that the potential of the ECB raising interest rates from 1 percent was a given and this had already been factored into the 17 nation currencies market value.

Going forward this week could see one of two things, either;

The Euro will continue it’s bullish trend if the ECB pre-commit to further short term interest rate hikes.
Or

Despite the additional funds a rate hike would bring to the economy this move would see a retracement or downgrading of the Euro’s value due to the bailouts required for failing Countries in the Euro Zone.
It would seem that there are two sides to the argument, on one hand you have the stronger members of the Euro, such as Germany, who would suggest that to continue it’s economic growth a hike in rates would stem the rising cost of fuel and food.

The other side of this debate would be fielded by countries that have required bailouts from the International Monetary Fund, such as Greece, Ireland and possibly the next in line, Portugal.

The main issue is that an interest rate hike would raise the repayment instalments newly agreed funding for countries who are still struggling to cope with previous toxic debit.

It is understandable for Germany to push for a quick succession of rate hike from the ECB to curb inflation and keep their economy the strongest in Europe, however, as they adopted a revolving door policy on their toxic debt they remain the only member of the Euro Zone to accept and address what fiscal effects the global financial crisis actually had on them.

Tottenham’s Champions League adventure continues tonight. They will face Real Madrid in the first leg of their quarter final at Barnabeu Stadium. Despite Real Madrid being 9 times European winners in the past, Tottenham are expected to do well and hope to face Barcelona in the semi finals. Both Gareth Bale and Christiana Ronaldo are expected to be substitutes during the game, as they are both still recovering from injuries. Other first leg Quarter finals tonight will see Inter Milan face Schalke 04.

Foreign Exchange Rates Table
Currency Pairs Current Mid-Rates at 9.00am

GBP - EUR 1.1386

EUR - GPB 0.8782

GBP - USD 1.6150

EUR - USD 1.4184

GBP - AUD 1.5645

GBP - CAD 1.5642

GBP - NZD 2.0987

GBP - CHF 1.4882

GBP - HKD 12.5560

GBP - NOK 8.8690

GBP - SEK 10.2497

GBP - ZAR 10.89

GBP - THB 48.78

GBP - AED 5.9220

GBP - MAD 12.8264

GBP - ILS 5.5945

GBP - TRY 2.4819

GBP - JPY 136.21

These are indicative rates, not buy rates
 
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