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desert dream
New Member
Hi All,
I would like to start a discussion on the CURRENT STATE of the market and going forward.
Two months ago, I thought we might have reached a bottom, however, now with the looming second wave of the global financial crisis, I feel property prices will fall 10-20% and might bottom out in Q1/Q2 2012. Here are my reasons -
1. The US and Europe are in huge trouble, a double dip recession is now imminent. Greece will amost certainly default in the coming months, which will send shockwaves in the global financial markets. The Euro is also on the brink, unless the EU does something about it (Eurobonds). Basically, the worldwide economic situation is looking very grim, and as we found out in Sept 2008, worldwide markets are all connected, whether we are in Dubai, or Mumbai. Investors are very cautious and to take a position in a falling market while the rest of the world is tumbling is a huge risk. This time, a couple of countries and banks are set to fall.
2. Huge Oversupply of Apartments. The overhang in Dubai marina itself is huge. There are new towers coming up like 23 Marina, Princess Tower, Torch(ready),Infinity Tower which have 100+ storeys. It is a clear situation of supply outweighing demand and will exert downward pressure.
3. There has been an increase in villa prices, however, that is in the summer months and on a very thin volume. With all the mayhem starting again in the global markets prices will take a beating again.
Well, these are my thoughts. I have been involved in this market since 2005.
Best,
Desert Dream
I would like to start a discussion on the CURRENT STATE of the market and going forward.
Two months ago, I thought we might have reached a bottom, however, now with the looming second wave of the global financial crisis, I feel property prices will fall 10-20% and might bottom out in Q1/Q2 2012. Here are my reasons -
1. The US and Europe are in huge trouble, a double dip recession is now imminent. Greece will amost certainly default in the coming months, which will send shockwaves in the global financial markets. The Euro is also on the brink, unless the EU does something about it (Eurobonds). Basically, the worldwide economic situation is looking very grim, and as we found out in Sept 2008, worldwide markets are all connected, whether we are in Dubai, or Mumbai. Investors are very cautious and to take a position in a falling market while the rest of the world is tumbling is a huge risk. This time, a couple of countries and banks are set to fall.
2. Huge Oversupply of Apartments. The overhang in Dubai marina itself is huge. There are new towers coming up like 23 Marina, Princess Tower, Torch(ready),Infinity Tower which have 100+ storeys. It is a clear situation of supply outweighing demand and will exert downward pressure.
3. There has been an increase in villa prices, however, that is in the summer months and on a very thin volume. With all the mayhem starting again in the global markets prices will take a beating again.
Well, these are my thoughts. I have been involved in this market since 2005.
Best,
Desert Dream
