Can we afford to wait?

[Lsab]

I've been reading through the thread on price increases and I'd really like some advice/opinions on whether or not we should sell up in Dubai and buy again in Egypt. I go back and for with this almost every day. Should we keep our studio in Dubai for another year or lose out by not getting in now in Hurghada (or Sahl etc). We could probably buy 2 studios for the price of the one we want to sell but I also think that Dubai has a little further to go. Help!

 

[NeilHollingsworth]

I've been reading through the thread on price increases and I'd really like some advice/opinions on whether or not we should sell up in Dubai and buy again in Egypt. I go back and for with this almost every day. Should we keep our studio in Dubai for another year or lose out by not getting in now in Hurghada (or Sahl etc). We could probably buy 2 studios for the price of the one we want to sell but I also think that Dubai has a little further to go. Help!

Hi Isab, are you sure Dubai has further to go? Isn't it becoming a little saturated, can you sell now and make a profit? If the answer is yes then you have to weigh up how much more you could make against how much you could stand to lose out on not buying in Egypt now.

These are hard things to predict but with Egypt being a very new market and there not having been a really significant increase in prices it will only be a matter time. If you look what happened in Bulgaria they stayed low for some time and then shot up, too much in my opinion.

Now we still get lots of enquires from people trying to get a £20-30k two bed apartment in Bansko for instance and they are just not there anymore. You will be paying £60-80k minimum.

If you do decide to buy in Egypt yes Hurghada is exceptional however if you can stretch to Sahl Hasheesh this is were i believe there is a lot of money to be made. Hurghada is a mature town really in terms of infrastructure Sahl is brand new and therefore should have huge potential for capital growth once the golf courses and other infrastructure is in place.

Anyway that has probably confused you even more sorry better get back to work

 

[Lsab]

Hi Isab, are you sure Dubai has further to go? Isn't it becoming a little saturated, can you sell now and make a profit? If the answer is yes then you have to weigh up how much more you could make against how much you could stand to lose out on not buying in Egypt now.

These are hard things to predict but with Egypt being a very new market and there not having been a really significant increase in prices it will only be a matter time. If you look what happened in Bulgaria they stayed low for some time and then shot up, too much in my opinion.

Now we still get lots of enquires from people trying to get a £20-30k two bed apartment in Bansko for instance and they are just not there anymore. You will be paying £60-80k minimum.

If you do decide to buy in Egypt yes Hurghada is exceptional however if you can stretch to Sahl Hasheesh this is were i believe there is a lot of money to be made. Hurghada is a mature town really in terms of infrastructure Sahl is brand new and therefore should have huge potential for capital growth once the golf courses and other infrastructure is in place.

Anyway that has probably confused you even more sorry better get back to work

Afternoon Neil,

No I'm not sure that Dubai isn't already saturated though the thinking in some quarters is that 2010 is about the time that the market will correct. I don't want to leave it that long but would like to get some rental money out of it first.

We have bought in Hurghada - Regency Beach so it's early days. We originally wanted to buy in Sahl but couldn't stretch that far...though we could if we sell in Dubai!

At the moment I'm thinking to get out of Dubai around this time next year! Of course none of us can predict where the market will be at that time - either in Egypt or Dubai - otherwise we'd all be rich, and that's why you're opinion helps rather than hinders.

 

[NeilHollingsworth]

No problem, if i can help further let me know. Have a good day.

 

[lyndsay552]

Hi Linda, I know how you feel.

We had the same dilemma. When we went to Hurghada in Jan we where just looking and buying nothing. Didn't take long for that to change!!

With us moving out later in the year, we had planned to wait until our house in the UK had sold. But the whole place seems to be booming and we didn't want to miss out.

I suppose what you need to look at is how much the apartment is Dubia will increase in value (plus its rental income),compared to something of the same value in Hurghada.

This probably doesn't help you much!!!!

Lyndsay

 

[Lsab]

No - but thanks anyway I just wish I'd got more funds to play with.

 

[NeilHollingsworth]

No - but thanks anyway I just wish I'd got more funds to play with.

Remember, some developments only need 40% deposit and then nothing until completion, some as far down the line as 18 months. You could buy an apartment at pre-launch prices with only 40% and then nothing else for 18 months giving you time to hold on to the one in Dubai, rent out and then sell to free up the money to pay off the one in Egypt. Just an idea.

 

[redangel7861]

I've been reading through the thread on price increases and I'd really like some advice/opinions on whether or not we should sell up in Dubai and buy again in Egypt. I go back and for with this almost every day. Should we keep our studio in Dubai for another year or lose out by not getting in now in Hurghada (or Sahl etc). We could probably buy 2 studios for the price of the one we want to sell but I also think that Dubai has a little further to go. Help!

Hi Isaab (Salaams),hope you are well.

With regards to selling in Dubai and purchasing in Egypt, I would seriously consider taking that option. The Dubai market has performed great over the past five years, but I believe is reaching saturation. Also laws introduced by the Dubai government regarding rentals will also hit capital appreciation.

The Egyptian market is in it's infancy, and with greater introduction of Mortgages and the major real estate companies from Dubai now looking to bulid in Egypt, I believe you will see greater Capital Appreciation in Egypt than you will in Dubai. It's only a matter of time before Egypt starts to narrow the real estate price gap between itself and the more affluent Middle East countries. The question you must ask yourself is how much would you pay in Dubai for a five star beachfront one bed apartment, and how much would you pay in Egypt. This gap will close over a period of time.

Regards
RED

 

[willowtree1]

How much are we currently talking on average for a good quality two bed appartment in Hurghada in close proximity to the sea ?

 

[redangel7861]

How much are we currently talking on average for a good quality two bed appartment in Hurghada in close proximity to the sea ?

You can pick up five star two bed frontline beachfront starting at around 46K

 

[NeilHollingsworth]

How much are we currently talking on average for a good quality two bed appartment in Hurghada in close proximity to the sea ?

Or a nearly completed 2 bed 300m from the beach for £32,495. Granted not the best location in the complex but damn good price.

 

[Lsab]

For arguements sake, if I had £50k how would you suggest I invest it, without putting it all in one property and gearing as much as possible.

 

[willowtree1]

Thanks for that.i can see why the place is pretty hot at the minute,sounds like its worth taking a look.

 

[NeilHollingsworth]

For arguements sake, if I had £50k how would you suggest I invest it, without putting it all in one property and gearing as much as possible.

It would depend on what you wanted back, rental or capital appreciation, your attitude to risk, would you want to use it, would you want a mortgage etc... It is not an easy call, although some would say it was!!

Fo example if you did not want a mortgage and wanted to buy something out right you could buy 3 studios (£47,985),300m from the beach, but would need extra for costs and furniture, we could try for a discount or ask for the legal fees to be paid?

Or you could buy a 2 bed and a studio (£49,754)

Or 2x 1 bed PRO (£49,368)

Or A studio in Sahl (49,800) for a penthouse rising to £56,250 soon.

Or you could put down deposits and as you say gear up as much as possible, there are so many variations it takes time to work out the best deal. Hope that helps to show it is not a straight forward question.

 

[Lysos]

Isab,

There is never a bad time to take a profit; don't be greedy. In all markets the average investor never gets in at the absolute bottom, nor out at the absolute top. As for Neil's comments ref. Bulgaria there is absolutely no evidence of any resale market in the tourist areas, but there are plenty of desperate wouldbe sellers. On another thread on this forum there is one guy offering his place at £40k less than original price and he isn't getting a sniff !.

Yesterday the chairman of the Bulgarian Industrial Association was reported as saying there were 20,000 unsold holiday apartments in Bansko and 200,000 on the Black Sea Coast. Looking at the ever increasing scale of development in Hurghada I think there's the same risk of oversupply.

 

[NeilHollingsworth]

Isab,

There is never a bad time to take a profit; don't be greedy. In all markets the average investor never gets in at the absolute bottom, nor out at the absolute top. As for Neil's comments ref. Bulgaria there is absolutely no evidence of any resale market in the tourist areas, but there are plenty of desperate wouldbe sellers. On another thread on this forum there is one guy offering his place at £40k less than original price and he isn't getting a sniff !.

Yesterday the chairman of the Bulgarian Industrial Association was reported as saying there were 20,000 unsold holiday apartments in Bansko and 200,000 on the Black Sea Coast. Looking at the ever increasing scale of development in Hurghada I think there's the same risk of oversupply.

I did say in my opinion they were way overpriced and if you can get a 2 bed close to the ski lift for £20-30k please let me know i will buy it.

 

[Lsab]

Thanks Neil, my head is buzzing with ideas now. I'll probably have even more questions tomorrow!

 

[NeilHollingsworth]

You will always get oversupply, just look at Spain, it all depends on what you buy. I always advise my clients to buy near a feature and when buying always think about the exit. As for Bulgaria, all my clients were advised to buy as close to the ski lift as possible, yes if someone bought an apartment in the middle of a town close to nothing other than a bar and restaurant they will struggle to sell. Lets not sterotype a whole region or country as a bad investment, it always depends on what you invest in. I bet Northern Rock was a good investment once!!

 

[dave99]

Egypt is still a NEW market

You will always get oversupply, just look at Spain, it all depends on what you buy. I always advise my clients to buy near a feature and when buying always think about the exit. As for Bulgaria, all my clients were advised to buy as close to the ski lift as possible, yes if someone bought an apartment in the middle of a town close to nothing other than a bar and restaurant they will struggle to sell. Lets not sterotype a whole region or country as a bad investment, it always depends on what you invest in. I bet Northern Rock was a good investment once!!

The biggest thing that Egypt has to offer at the moment is that it is one of the NEW property markets with lots of "potential"

And being new there is a long way to go before there is much possibility of over supply.

The potential for over supply is out there - it's a bit of a race between the increasing popularity (new buyers),and really big resorts coming into play in the next 3 to 5 years time, and of course those cheap flights !!!..

.

 

[Lsab]

Hi Isaab (Salaams),hope you are well.

With regards to selling in Dubai and purchasing in Egypt, I would seriously consider taking that option. The Dubai market has performed great over the past five years, but I believe is reaching saturation. Also laws introduced by the Dubai government regarding rentals will also hit capital appreciation.

The Egyptian market is in it's infancy, and with greater introduction of Mortgages and the major real estate companies from Dubai now looking to bulid in Egypt, I believe you will see greater Capital Appreciation in Egypt than you will in Dubai. It's only a matter of time before Egypt starts to narrow the real estate price gap between itself and the more affluent Middle East countries. The question you must ask yourself is how much would you pay in Dubai for a five star beachfront one bed apartment, and how much would you pay in Egypt. This gap will close over a period of time.

Regards
RED

Morning Red,

Apologies - I meant to reply to your post yesterday.

It's a question I hadn't asked myself and one that I am doing now. Almost certain that we'll get out of Dubai and into Egypt. I also tend to forget that GCC countries buy and holiday in Egypt in increasing numbers and they'll continue to push prices up. The market isn't exclusive to Europeans.

As you know, we're already buying on Regency Beach so we've made a start.

Many thanks.