Tough times ahead for Ajman
I wouldn't expect to see any sign of recovery in Ajman in 2010 or beyond - for the following reasons:
1) Ajman was marketed as a 'bedroom' community to Dubai, boasting a mere 25 minutes from Dubai Int'l airport. When the prices in Dubai skyrocketed, for many investors / buyers - Ajman became a viable alternative where you could own for 50% or less than in Dubai. (retail AED 300 to the peak last year of AED 450- 500)
Now that prices in Dubai have dropped 50% and may go down further - it's far less attractive
2) Another selling point that made Ajman attractive to many investors that intended to be end-users - was the Visa - that is out of the equation now. So, many of those buyers, who did in fact buy to establish residency - will no longer have much interest. (India, Pakistan, Iran, Russia...)
3) Ajman municipality has lost much credibility with investors and perceived lack of a 'rule of law.' A master developer defaulted on handing over the plots for several large projects - having not done the infrastructure work - because he used the proceeds to speculate on more land. The gov't canceled the project and then penalized the sub- developers 30% !!! Which was then passed on to the investors! Then offered other plots at inflated values above the current market! This action has been taken with total impunity. It begs the question, if the gov't can do this - what else can they do? Where is the protection for investors?
4) Although they established their own form of RERA - to date, it's not very effective and hardly what you consider as 'User Freindly'
5) Drive through Ajman - the main town - you will see dozens of buildings completed of close to completion. Some that were completed were not handed over because NO ELECTRIC! And this will be an issue for years to come. it is hardly a rich emirate (ever wonder about those projects in Ajman offering 'Lakes?' Where is the water going to come from to fill these 'Lakes?' They going to bring it in from sea across Emirates Road? Dig a well? oh well...)
6) Ajman Glut of inventory - there are tens of thousands of units completed in Town or soon to be ready. Many of those completed are empty. There is a HUGE glut of apartments completed and selling at bargain basements prices - IF they can find buyers which is harder than in Dubai. Many investors have locked into -off-plan sales within the last 18 months are that now 50% + higher than current market prices. You may think, 'Well in 2-3 years time, the prices will go up again - very, very doubtful. In Dubai? Maybe. Ajman - keep dreaming. The buyers / investors flocked there because Dubai was unaffordable for many - no longer the case. The other main reason they bought there was for the 'visa' - also no longer the case. Take away those two factors that contributed to the demand and then add the overall mistrust of the authorities and lack of consumer confidence - what do you have?
I am sorry to say, that many that have invested in Ajman will probably lose most of their money. As more and more developers will have no choice but to skip. The Ajman authorities may also like to see these developers default so THEY can try to grab those investors and convert them into buyers of their own projects. Serious conflicts of interest. My heart goes out to any honest developer that hoped to operate there.
There are always those, (including some of the brokers and speculators on this forum) whom will paint a rosy picture of Ajman and give you 1000 + 1 reasons why Ajman is great and 'NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY!' Don't believe it for a second. If you are serious in wanting to buy a RE Investment, even if you pay a little more, you'll be far more secure in Dubai that in Ajman which many have described as a 'Lawless Wild West' type of environment.
In addition, look at the cases where a project was offered as a 'freehold' then converted to a 'leasehold' !! Imagine, you purchased, been making payments and halfway through this bombshell is dropped on you, 'Sorry, it's a leasehold now... ugh.. - You should prepare yourself for more of this to come. Some are of the belief that the authorities would prefer investors to run away, throw-up their hands and never look back. This way, they can simply just pocket the money and have the last laugh.
Be very careful.